This 7.5% TSX dividend stock has cut its 2025 payout by 50%: Is it finally a good buy?

Fair Capital (TSX:FSZ) Shares are down 33% through 2025 after the company cut its dividend in half earlier this year. The quarterly payout dropped 50% to $0.108 per share, but still yields 7.4%.

While the move initially shocked investors, analysts believe it is a positive long-term move that will save the company about $46 million annually.

This news came along with a major change in leadership. Founder Jean-Guy Desjardins stepped down as CEO in July and was replaced by Maxime Menard, who led the company’s Canadian division.

Fiera Capital is also in the midst of a restructuring and this year closed its Canadian small-cap and micro-cap strategies, moving $1.2 billion in assets to another investment manager.

Let’s see if you should own this high-dividend TSX stock in December 2025.

Is this TSX dividend stock a good buy?

Fiera Capital ended the third quarter with $166.9 billion in assets under management, up 4% sequentially. The increase in assets under management was driven by $900 million in new investments and broader market growth.

Fiera’s private markets business is a key driver of growth in assets under management, which rose 5% to $22 billion. This segment secured an initial investment of $800 million for a new fund focused on Canadian infrastructure and real estate.

Although the private markets division only accounts for 13% of the company’s total assets, it is disproportionately valuable to the company, generating 37% of total revenue.

The public markets segment, which manages $145 billion, saw mixed results. Fiera attracted $800 million in new capital for its internal strategies. But these gains were offset by $700 million in outflows from unadvised accounts.

Strong investment performance

Investment performance in the fixed income segment remained strong, with almost all strategies adding value. However, many active equity strategies struggled to outperform benchmarks in a concentrated market.

Under the leadership of CEO Maxime Menard, Fiera is refocusing its infrastructure teams and seeking to provide more customized investment solutions to institutional clients.

By consolidating its capabilities in infrastructure debt and equity, the company hopes to capture a larger share of what it sees as a highly attractive global asset class.

Fiera reported revenue of $167 million in the third quarter, up 3% sequentially and marginally lower than the year-ago period. Despite a revenue decline, Fiera maintained a healthy adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin of 30% thanks to a focus on cost control.

An important priority for the company is to strengthen its balance sheet. During the quarter, Fiera used its free cash flow to pay down $33 million in debt, reducing total net debt to $680 million.

Additionally, Fiera repurchased $3.6 million worth of its own stock in the third quarter, indicating management expects the dividend stock to be undervalued.

Is Fiera Capital stock undervalued?

Analysts who follow Fiera Capital stock predict that revenue will increase from $682.75 million in 2025 to $756 million in 2027. During this period, free cash flow is expected to improve from $95 million to $125 million. Given annual dividend costs of roughly $46 million, the payout ratio should improve from 48% in 2025 to 37% in 2027.

If the TSX dividend stock is priced at six times forward FCF, which is similar to the current multiple, it should rise 16% over the next twelve months. Taking dividends into account, the cumulative return could be closer to 24%.