UNITED NATIONS, Feb 17 (IPS) – With the campaign for the next secretary general gaining momentum at a relatively slow pace, there is widespread speculation that any candidate running for UN chief will have to adhere to the dictates of a politically hostile White House or face a veto in the Security Council.
So far, only two candidates have been declared: former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet and former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi of Argentina – and more candidates are expected to enter the race.
The winning candidate, who will take office in January 2027, will be elected by the 15-member Security Council and then ratified by the 193-member General Assembly (UNGA).
Annalena Baerbock, the president of the UNGA, said the selection process is already underway and the interactive dialogues with candidates are scheduled for the week of April 20, where they will present their “vision statements.”
Meanwhile, the US has publicly spoken out against some of the core goals of the UN’s socio-economic agenda, including gender empowerment and diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) policies, while dismissing climate change as “a hoax” and a “gigantic scam.”
The Trump administration has also downplayed human rights and compliance with international law – two concepts deeply ingrained in the UN system.
In an interview with the New York Times last January, President Trump said he “doesn’t need international law” to guide his actions, arguing that only his own “morals” and “spirit” will limit his global power.
So what would be the fate of any candidate – man or woman – who advocates these UN goals? Will there be a battle for the vetoes – as happened in times gone by?
Richard Gowan, Program Director, Global Issues and Institutions, International Crisis Group (ICG) and who oversees ICG’s work on geopolitics, global trends in conflict and multilateralism, says no one knows how this race will end.
It is clear that UN observers will monitor the vision statements and public appearances of the first candidates in the coming months, he stressed.
“But diplomats in New York suspect that the veto powers in the Security Council could suddenly announce last-minute support for a new candidate to bypass the entire public process. There is a strong feeling that the US, China and Russia do not want to be hemmed in by the General Assembly.”
There is also a scenario, he said, in which the veto power cannot agree on a candidate, and the Council ultimately has to continue discussions on a candidate through December.
“UN officials have even made some contingency plans for what happens if there is no agreement on the candidate by January 1, 2027. It is possible that the Security Council will ask Guterres to stay on for a few months, although I think both the diplomats and Guterres do not want that outcome.”
There are certainly some senior U.N. officials and ambassadors in New York who are wondering whether the council can call on them at the last minute, Gowan said.
Thomas G. Weiss, presidential professor emeritus of political science and director emeritus of the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies at the CUNY Graduate Center, says it is difficult to imagine that someone running for the SGV would not encounter a veto from Washington on a candidacy that would necessarily address the values of cooperation (multilateralism in any form) and honestly discuss those issues: climate, gender (male or female), nuclear proliferation, Palestine, sovereignty – all “hoaxes” or “scams” according to DJT (President Trump) and his junta.
According to him, both the 1996 and 1981 elections provide ‘models’.
“The Chinese vetoes are probably the most relevant precedent for Washington to go to the mat indefinitely until an ‘acceptable’ candidate emerges. Let’s hope that person is as competent as the 1996 compromise, Kofi Annan,” he declared.
In 1981, Salim Ahmed Salim of Tanzania was supported by the Organization for African Unity, the Non-Aligned Movement and China. But his bid was blocked by a US veto.
In 1996, a second five-year term for Boutros Boutros-Ghali of Egypt was vetoed by the US – even though he had the support of 14 of the 15 members of the Security Council.
In 1981, China issued a record 16 vetoes against Kurt Waldheim to prevent a third term, leading to his withdrawal and the selection of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar.
Meanwhile, there has been an intensive campaign for a female UN chief, the first in the UN’s 81-year history. But the US has remained tight-lipped about the widely supported proposal.
The last 9 Secretaries-General, all men, include:
Antonio Guterres (Portugal), who took office in January 2017;
Ban Ki-moon (Republic of Korea), from January 2007 to December 2016;
Kofi A. Annan (Ghana), January 1997 to December 2006;
Boutros Boutros-Ghali (Egypt), January 1992 to December 1996;
Javier Perez de Cuellar (Peru), January 1982 to December 1991;
Kurt Waldheim (Austria), January 1972 to December 1981;
U Thant (Burma, now Myanmar), who served from November 1961, when he was appointed Acting Secretary General (he was formally appointed Secretary General in November 1962) to December 1971;
Dag Hammarskjöld (Sweden), from April 1953 until his death in a plane crash in Africa in September 1961; And
Trygve Lie (Norway), who held office from February 1946 until his resignation in November 1952.
As for the US, Gowan said: “I don’t believe Washington has found a candidate yet. But the Trump administration is certainly aware that they have the power to reshape the political culture of the organization if they find someone who aligns with their views.”
He said US diplomats have told other veto powers that they will hold off on various reform proposals and cuts until they have their own candidate as secretary general.
Many UN members assume that the US will not accept a female secretary general, but I think Washington could support a woman if she is a strong social conservative and willing to make major cuts to the UN system, he argued.
“However, at the moment there is no obvious female candidate who meets these criteria. I think some candidates who could never join the US on issues such as development and diversity are already dropping out of the race”
Meanwhile, there’s a reason Mia Mottley has gone from being the perceived frontrunner to refocusing on domestic politics.
“I also think that all the candidates recognize that they will need to talk much more about how they will advance the UN’s work in peace and security, which is a priority not only for the US but for many member states.”
“That said, a senior UN diplomat recently told me that they cannot see the Global South accepting another Western candidate after Guterres, regardless of gender. The non-Western members of the Security Council could create a blocking minority in the Security Council to keep out candidates from US allies,” Gowan stated.
IPS UN office report
© Inter Press Service (20260217080219) — All rights reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
#veto #weapon #elimination #election #chief