The ‘Uptober’ effect: Why analysts are bullish in October about the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) is on schedule for a third consecutive “Green” September, a trend that historically set the scene for a “double digit” Oktoberrally.

With a profit for the month currently floating around 8%, analysts look to see if this pattern, called “Uptober”, will repeat itself.

Watch out for the double digit October

Analysts look closely this month, remark That in recent years, every September with an upward trend was followed by double digits in October. In 2024, for example, the actively registered an increase of +7.29% in September, which was followed by an increase of +10.76% the following month. In 2023 it won +3.91% during the same period and was followed by a jump of +28.52% in October, as shown below:

This consistent trend has led experts to believe that traders and investors could position their portfolios to anticipate a rally, which can lead to a self -fulfilling prophecy. While institutional and retail money flow in, the increased purchasing pressure creates the increase they predicted, which strengthens the “Uptober” story and becomes an important part of the market psychology.

The Bitcoin -Halve in April 2024, which has reduced the reward for mining new blocks by 50%, created a supply shock. Historically, the year after a halving was a powerful growth period. The “Uptober” rally fits in this wider cycle, because the reduced supply meets the ongoing demand.

Data from the past provide proof of this trend. For example, the Halving of 2016 was followed by a historic bull run in 2017, where the price of BTC rose from a few hundred dollars to almost $ 20,000. Similarly, the Halving from 2020 was the precursor of a historical increase in 2021, when the price of the cryptocurrency shot up from around $ 10,000 to a peak near $ 69,000 in November.

Macro -economic policy and institutional approval

After months of economic uncertainty, recent actions injected by central banks, including a rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, a sense of trust in risky assets. The recent reduction with 25 BPS saw the price rally of the flagship cryptocurrency up to $ 118 K.

In addition, recent shifts in US government policy are seen as a bullish sign. The Trump administration has taken a pro-Crypto attitude, with the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve in March 2025.

The continuous growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs, in particular in the United States, has also become an important motivation of demand. Recent recent information highlights This trend. In the first half of September, these investment products saw their largest weekly inflow since July, with a few funds that gathered hundreds of millions of dollars in a single day.

It is said that the institutional question exceeds the pace of the new BTC offer from MijnBouw. The combined interests of the American listed ETFs have now crossed 1.3 million BTC, which shows that the acceptance by large investors and its impact on market dynamics.