![The top 10 most likely NBA scorers in today’s first basket, plus +1200 picks for Saturday [11/15/2025]](https://i0.wp.com/cdn.cosmicjs.com/2f006db0-c096-11f0-9e30-615edcc8f22d-Pascal-Siakam.jpg?fit=%2C "The top 10 most likely NBA scorers in today’s first basket, plus +1200 picks for Saturday [11/15/2025]")
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player scoring the first basket during today’s matchups Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderwith a probability of 17.0%.
| Player (team) | FB probability |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) | 17.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) | 17.0% |
| Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) | 16.1% |
| Pascal Siakam (Pacers) | 15.2% |
| Luka Doncic (Lakers) | 13.6% |
| Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) | 12.9% |
| Anthony Edwards (Timber Wolves) | 12.7% |
| Deandre Ayton (Lakers) | 12.6% |
| Julius Randle (Timber Wolves) | 12.6% |
| Miles Bridges (Hornets) | 12.3% |
| Isaiah Jackson (Pacers) | 12.0% |
| Scottie Barnes (Raptors) | 12.0% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder) | 11.9% |
| Austin Reaves (Lakers) | 11.5% |
| Chet Holmgren (Thunder) | 11.4% |
| Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers) | 11.2% |
| Jamal Murray (nuggets) | 11.1% |
| Ryan Rollins (Bucks) | 11.1% |
| Collin Sexton (Hornets) | 11.0% |
| Ja Morant (Grizzly Bears) | 11.0% |
| Kon Knueppel (Hornets) | 11.0% |
| Brandon Ingram (Raptors) | 10.9% |
| Jaden McDaniels (Timber Wolves) | 10.4% |
| RJ Barrett (Raptors) | 10.2% |
| Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) | 10.2% |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner (Hornets) | 9.8% |
| De’Andre Hunter (Cavaliers) | 9.8% |
| Kyle Kuzma (Bucks) | 9.6% |
| Carlo Coward (Grizzly Bears) | 9.3% |
| Jaylen Wells (Grizzly Bears) | 9.2% |
| Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) | 9.1% |
| Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) | 9.0% |
| Immanuel Quickley (Raptors) | 8.6% |
| Jakob Poeltl (Raptors) | 8.3% |
| Rudy Gobert (Timber Wolves) | 7.5% |
| Myles Turner (Bucks) | 7.4% |
He follows Gilgeous-Alexander closely Giannis Antetokounmpo at 17.0% and Nikola Jokic at 16.1%.
Pascal Siakam and Luka Doncic are also in attendance, with the full list of early basket projections for Saturday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Top NBA picks in the first basket [11/15/2025]
After simulating the outcome of today’s NBA matchups 10,000 times each, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket bet you can place on Saturday.
Ryan Rollins first basket scorer
Our model has the best nba bet on first basket for Saturday’s NBA slate in the Lakers-Bucks game. The bet is made Ryan Rollins (MIL) at +1200 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with a 3.4% lead according to our analysis.
While Rollins doesn’t appear in the top 10 most likely first basket scorers in our model for Saturday’s NBA list, he does provide the best betting opportunity for those looking to gain an edge in the market.
NBA schedule for today [11/15/2025]
For more betting guides, check out Saturday’s best NBA bets and our NBA player prop picks for Saturday.
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Conclusion
For November 15, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions highlight big players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic, all of whom are among the highest expected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to +EV betting, it’s Ryan Rollins who comes out on top, with a calculated edge of 3.4% at +1200 odds.
These projections are made up of 10,000 simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always be cautious when gambling: help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
For more insight, check out our NBA player props and best NBA bets. Stay up to date with our current NBA betting odds, NBA news and current NBA title odds.
This article was generated in part using automated data and AI tools, with all content reviewed and finalized by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and quality.
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