The Minnesota Timberwolves had to make a decision last summer, with several players entering free agency and expecting a raise. They opted to bring back Julius Randle and Naz Reid, allowing two-way wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker to walk in free agency. Looking back, that seems to have been a mistake.
At the time, the reason was quite easy to figure out. Considering the large sums of money owed by Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, the Timberwolves decided they should remain under the second tax apron. That would allow them to avoid the most severe restrictions on their spending and team building.
Functionally, this meant choosing one of their top three free agents not to bring back. Randle was the obvious top choice, as his secondary scoring and playmaking were crucial parts of the Timberwolves’ success the season before. From then on, the team felt that they would be better off replacing Alexander-Walker’s role with young, up-and-coming players in their squad, while Naz Reid would be irreplaceable. They opted to re-sign Reid, and Alexander-Walker signed with the Atlanta Hawks.
Every major development since that decision seemed to scream that Wolves had made the wrong choice.
The Timberwolves got it wrong when they re-signed Naz Reid
Their first mistake was the size of the contract they handed to Naz Reid: five years, $125 million. It was a surprisingly strong offer for a player who was always going to come off the bench for the Timberwolves. It was also significantly higher than Alexander-Walker’s four-year, $60 million deal.
Reid has not fulfilled his contract thus far; he’s done well as a scorer and his numbers are right in line with his career standards, but that equates to a player who should be earning a lot less than Reid. One of the big challenges for the Timberwolves this season has been finding lineups that work, given the lack of rim protection Reid provides as a backup center. Although he has done better lately, it is not up to the standards of the contract he signed.
The second development was Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s play in Atlanta. He has emerged into the Hawks’ starting lineup and has taken a big step forward as an on-ball player, scoring, shooting and passing at career-best levels. He is averaging 20.5 points per game as a secondary offensive engine next to Jalen Johnson.
Considering he’s also an impact defender at the point of attack and on the wing, ‘NAW’ seems like the player who should have been paid $25 million per season instead of the $15 million he received. He has reached the next level, allowing the Hawks to trade Trae Young with confidence and making the Wolves look bad for letting him walk.
It would be one thing if Alexander-Walker played well and the Timberwolves correctly identified a player from last year who could step into his role.
The reality is that they haven’t; Terrence Shannon Jr. nullifies the offense when he takes the court, while Rob Dillingham has failed to establish himself as an NBA player. Jaylen Clark remains a defensive specialist. The replacement simply isn’t there.
Minnesota is still a good team, but they would be in much better shape if they selected Alexander-Walker over Reid. Maybe that would have meant keeping Luka Garza, who plays for the Boston Celtics; perhaps it would have meant more minutes for rookie center Joan Beringer, who has shown real flashes in his first season.
However the Wolves built the rotation, the end product would have been better if Nickaeil Alexander-Walker was in it. As he excels for the Hawks by stealing a contract, the Timberwolves wonder: What if they had kept him?
And those regrets can only grow as the playoffs draw closer.
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