The Timberwolves likely can’t meet the Bucks’ demand for Giannis

Ever since the Minnesota Timberwolves entered the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes last week, I was skeptical that they would be able to meet the Bucks’ (understandably) high asking price. Recently, Shams Charania of ESPN provided an update on the race for Giannis.

“The Bucks are exploring proposals specifically from the Heat, Wolves, Knicks and Warriors,” Shams said. “And throughout the process, the Bucks have wanted a top young talent and/or a surplus of draft picks. And so my understanding is that the Warriors have made an offer that is tough. Minnesota is more of a player-centric offer, and Miami is somewhere in the middle, somewhere between players and picks. And so the Bucks will have to choose. Do we take one of these offers?”

We’ve known for a while that these four teams are interested in Giannis. Likewise, the Bucks’ asking price for a top young talent and/or a surplus of draft picks isn’t major news. Howeverit’s worth comparing the Wolves’ potential offer to that of other teams and exploring Minnesota’s options to trade for Giannis.

The Wolves’ path to trading for Giannis is difficult

The closest thing the Wolves have to a top young talent is Jaden McDaniels. At 25, McDaniels is enjoying a career season and is a fantastic winger. When I hear young top talent, I think of slightly younger players. Still, McDaniels has a lot of upside, and he could very well be the best young player the Bucks could get.

If the Wolves included Randle, they could essentially match salaries. From there, the Wolves could throw in up to seven second-round picks to “sweeten” the package. Keep in mind that Minnesota only has one 2028 first-round pick swap at its disposal, and since Milwaukee has already traded its 2028 first-round pick, this is essentially irrelevant. This lack of draft picks is a clear problem for the Wolves, despite their win-now talent.

Maybe the Bucks will opt for a win-now deal. But it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo crying out loud – you’re telling me they don’t get a first round pick back? I could be wrong, but at this point I don’t believe it.

Another possibility is that the Wolves involve a third or fourth team. Although Shams did not directly mention this, Brian Windhorst did thatand if we connect the dots, this is the top path for the Wolves to land Giannis, especially if the Bucks are looking for first-round draft picks. The Portland Trail Blazers would be the logical third team, as they own the majority of Milwaukee’s future rosters.

As such, a deal that sends McDaniels to Portland with Randle and the picks to Milwaukee is somewhat feasible. However, if I’m the Blazers, I’d hold onto those picks dearly. And maybe the Blazers in the Giannis lottery himself, according to Jake Fischer.

My bigger point is that this will be so very difficult for the Wolves to make a Giannis trade even if they are in the mix. Now in the offseason, Minnesota has access to two additional first-round picks. But do the Bucks really want to wait until the summer?

Other teams could trump the Wolves’ best offer

The Warriors’ package, focused on their future picks (in a likely post-Stephen Curry era), could be attractive to Milwaukee. As for players, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski would be at center. While not ideal, taking out significant draft capital can be intriguing enough.

For me, Miami has the cleanest path to make a move. As Shams noted, the Heat are somewhere in the middle between players and picks. Or as I would put it, this would be the best of both worlds for Milwaukee. A deal involving Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Andrew Wiggins and three first-round picks could be an ideal move for both sides.

And what if a Dark Horse team makes an offer that could really meet the Bucks’ needs? I already mentioned the Blazers, but beyond that I saw the Raptors, Hawks and 76ers shaking things up.

It certainly seems like the Wolves are in the mix for Giannis, but I still think it will be an uphill battle to make a move forward before Thursday.