SAN FRANCISCO – Lost in the frustration of the Lakers’ loss to the Suns on Thursday was the fact that coach JJ Redick made a change that should benefit the team in the long run.
The Lakers adjusted their rotation to allow Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to be on the floor more, while also allowing LeBron James to play longer lineups without the team’s star guards — a decision the data shows was the right move.
In the team’s three previous games before Thursday, with Reaves rejoining the starting lineup after being on a playing time restriction prior to the All-Star break, the Lakers’ rotation has gone in this pattern after starting games with Doncic, Reaves, James, Marcus Smart and Deandre Ayton:
- Smart and Ayton would be the first Lakers eliminated, with Jake LaRavia and Jaxson Hayes coming in;
- Rui Hachimura would replace James not long after the first sub if he didn’t come in with LaRavia and Hayes, leaving Doncic and Reaves on the floor without James for a minute or two until Luke Kennard came on for Reaves;
- Reaves and James would be on the court to start the second quarter without Doncic, who played most if not all of the first quarter;
- Doncic closed out the final six to seven minutes of the second, with Reaves and James getting breaks midway through the quarter before coming back in for the final few minutes of the half.
The pattern, which the Lakers also followed in the second half, led to James and Reaves playing the majority of their minutes together — 30.2 per game in the first three games after halftime, including about 10 minutes without Doncic on the floor. And when the Lakers played lineups with only one of their stars on the floor, Doncic would usually lead those groups.
That changed against the Suns.
Doncic and Reaves were the ones on the floor together more often — 36 minutes in Phoenix — while James opened the second and fourth quarters without either of them on the floor for a few minutes. James and Reaves barely played without Doncic, including on the floor against the Suns.
The decisions are in line with positive seasonal trends for the Lakers.
Lineups with Doncic and Reaves on the floor and James on the bench have outscored opponents by 11.9 points per 100 possessions. according to databallrcompared to lineups with James and Reaves on the floor without Doncic being outscored at 4.2 points per 100 possessions.
And among lineups with only one of the team’s stars on the floor, James-led units fared better than Doncic or Reaves-led lineups.
The change, at least judging by the numbers, initially didn’t pay off.
The Lakers were defeated by five points in the eleven minutes. Doncic and Reaves were on the floor without James.
The James-led groups also did not play at the expected level.
The Lakers were at their best when all three were on the floor, which is ironic considering that hasn’t been the case for most of the season.
They outscored the Suns by 16 points in the 25 minutes the trio played — which also means they were outscored by 19 points in the 23 minutes that featured a different lineup that didn’t feature Doncic, James and Reaves on the floor together.
Whether the Lakers will adhere to the change in rotation patterns will be a trend to watch. But the adjustment is worth watching depending on how the season goes.
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