Weekly home inventory data
Housing inventory growth during the peak sales season rose 33% year-on-year, and has recently fallen to 16%. As demand picked up slightly and new listing data began to decline, the inventory growth rate has fallen by half, but continues to rise healthily year over year. The year-over-year growth has created a much more buyer-friendly market, but we are entering the seasonal inventory decline before 2025.
- Weekly Inventory Change (October 31 – November 7): Inventory has decreased from 856,701 Unpleasant 842,242
- Same week last year (November 1 – November 8): Stock fell from 735,663 Unpleasant 721,576
New advertising data
Over the past three weeks our Housing Market Tracker has shown some fluctuating data, but things seem to be getting back to normal. Last week we saw some growth in the number of new listings, even as we enter a seasonal downturn. Even in 2025, the new advertising data shows no signs of seller stress.
To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble, the number of new homes crashed between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for years. Here is the new advertising data from the past two years:
- 2025: 55,481
- 2024: 48,863
Price reduction percentage
In an average year, about a third of homes experience price decreases, which underlines the dynamic nature of the housing market. Homeowners are adjusting their sales prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain high. With more inventory and higher rates, our markdown rate data is higher than last year.
For my Price prediction 2025I expected a modest increase in house prices of about 1.77%. This indicates that negative real house prices are likely to return in 2025. The increase in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025.
Here are the percentages of homes that have seen a price drop over the past two years:
Mortgage interest and the 10-year interest rate
In my forecast for 2025 I expected the following margins:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70%
It was an eventful week for the bond market. Although it was intended to be a jobs week, the usual data we rely on was not available due to the government shutdown. However, the positive ADP report and new ISM orders caused bond yields to rise. The next day we received labor data that was weaker than expected, resulting in a decline in revenues.
Overall, the 10-year yield is currently near its annual low. This trend is not the result of cooling inflation, but rather a reflection of a weakening labor market, especially in 2025. The 10-year yield ended up closing roughly where it started the week at 4.10% and mortgage rates ended the week just slightly lower at 6.32%, according to Mortgage news dailywith the Polly Rate Lock data closing at 6.31%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads were the best story for mortgage rates in 2025. We are again only 0.29% basis points away from normal levels. The important thing to remember is that mortgage rates wouldn’t be close to 6% if spreads didn’t improve this year, and we still have some room for improvement next year.
Historically, mortgage spreads have fluctuated between 1.60% and 1.80%. If spreads were as bad today as they were at their 2023 peak, mortgage rates would currently be 1.01 percentage points higher. Conversely, if spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.59% to 0.39% lower than current levels. With normal spreads, mortgage rates today would be 5.83% to 6.03%.
Buy application data
We tested the housing data for fourteen weeks in 2025, with a mortgage interest rate below 6.64%. In recent years, housing data has performed better as mortgage rates fell below 6.64% and headed towards 6%.
Over the last fourteen weeks, we’ve had eight positive prints, six negative prints, and fourteen consecutive weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth in purchasing apps. Last week was down 1% from the week before, but up 26% year-over-year.
Earlier this year we saw healthy year-over-year growth, but weekly data was choppy. The last fourteen weeks have been the best of the year, but I would like to see four to six more weeks of positive week-to-week data. When interest rates rise, it usually affects the weekly data for next week.
Here are the weekly data for 2025 so far:
- 20 positive measurements
- 17 negative measurements
- 6 flat prints
- 40 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 27 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth, year after year
Weekly ongoing sales
Our weekly pending home sales were quite volatile, mainly due to the impact of a two-week holiday and the recent AWS outage that impacted one of our reporting weeks. However, it seems like things are getting back to normal and we have seen a nice increase week on week.
On an annual basis we show significant growth. Remember, mortgage rates rose to 7% this time last year, so keep that in mind when comparing year-over-year data. Nevertheless, a mortgage interest rate of almost 6% can have a positive effect on the housing market.
Weekly open sales for the past week:
- 2025: 59,245
- 2024: 51,277
The coming week: No inflation week yet
Normally I would call this inflation week, but until the government shutdown is resolved, the focus will be on some key bond auctions that could cause volatility. In addition, some speeches from Federal Reserve presidents can also influence the market. Normally we see retail sales data, but that is also unavailable during the shutdown. Yet there are still enough events this week to influence the price.
#housing #stock #decreases #demand #increases