The gold price in India is falling from a record high. Will it rise or fall before Christmas?

After an eventful 2025 so far that saw domestic gold prices rise more than 70%, the yellow metal heads into the Christmas week amid a holiday-induced lull. The major global commodity markets are poised for an early break from Wednesday, December 24, which will lead to lower trading volumes. Under such conditions, bullion prices could rise by 2-3% on both sides.Domestic gold prices have fallen by Rs 1,300 per 10 gram from the lifetime peak of Rs 1,35,590 with February gold futures on the MCX ending flat at Rs 1,34,206 on Friday, although the bias was positive.

While the Indian Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) will not be closed until Thursday, December 25, US markets will reopen for trading on Friday, December 26, while markets in Britain, Germany, France, Canada and Hong Kong will remain closed.

Deciphering the current trends, Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont, expects gold prices to consolidate around the high of Rs 1,35,000 and said a breakout or collapse on either side could trigger a 2%-3% rally. She sees short-term resistance around the peak.

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As for silver, traders booked gains towards the end of the previous session, leading to a decline of 0.21% or Rs 439 per kg in the March contracts. White metal futures settled at Rs 2,08,000 after touching lifetime high of Rs 2,08,603.

“Silver has touched the resistance at Rs 2,08,000. Prices are expected to make some gains before rising further. Uptrend is intact till prices trade above the support at Rs 1,94,000,” she said, placing the next resistance at Rs 2,18,000 and Rs 2,24,000.

Chainani said geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela, combined with robust industrial and investment demand, could provide some support for gold. She also sees a 0.75 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as positive for precious metals.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)