Sell a transporter and buy a blanker! In our latest community article, FPL_Runpharm explores Fantasy’s legendary ‘transfer curse’ – and looks for healthier answers.
There’s a special kind of pain in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Not the usual kind, like when your captain misses a penalty, or when your midfielder is sent off in the 59th minute. The pain I’m talking about is something more spiritual. Something supernatural. Something that feels… personal.
Everyone has experienced it. You buy a player and he blanks. You sell a player, he takes it. And sometimes this doesn’t happen just once. Not even twice. It lasts a full arc of three Gameweeks, like a miniseries. If this were any other hobby, we’d call it a coincidence. Since it’s FPL, we call it a curse.
The things we tell ourselves in 3am
Some managers sincerely believe that this curse is their fault. They actually apologize for buying players. You’ve seen it happen.
Trump for example (presumably not That one) said before Gameweek 10: “Guys, sorry. I brought in Mbeumo. He’s ready. Please stay away for your own safety.” In Game Week 10, Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m) lost to Nottingham Forest despite Manchester United scoring two goals and recording 0.55 xGI.
The community’s response was immediate: “Oi, bro, why are you touching him?” People speak as if Trump personally took away the player’s scoring energy. As if Mbeumo was about to take a shot somewhere at the City Ground and mid-swing thought, “Wait. Trump just transferred me. Time to plant this in row Z.”
This isn’t just FPL drama. It is a documented psychological effect.
“People value results more if they think they influenced them, even if objectively they didn’t.” – Ellen Langer, Illusion of Control
Main character syndrome
Many of us act like the protagonists of the universe. We (myself included!) grow up believing that everything revolves around us, and that belief quietly lingers into adulthood.
You are not the only owner Bukayo Saka (£10.1 million). You believe Saka is playing for You. He misses two big chances in Gameweek 10? It feels personal and you sell him so you can double/triple Arsenal’s defense. He scores next Gameweek? You become convinced that he did it because he hates you.
Psychologist Anthony Greenwald describes this phenomenon as the ‘totalitarian ego’. Our minds manipulate reality to keep ourselves at the center of the story. Not because it’s true, but because it feels good.
Yes, the curse is REAL – But not for the reason you think
The answer is… ‘regression to the mean’. When a player performs exceptionally well for a while, the chance that his performance returns to average increases.
For example, Antoine Semenyo (£8.1 million) suddenly stops scoring and even misses a penalty. No one can keep scoring forever (unless his or her name is Erling Haaland (£14.9 million), but even Haaland misses the occasional penalty).
More examples: Arsenal’s defenders get two goals against Sunderland after a run of zero. No team keeps a clean sheet forever (unless it’s Chelsea in 2004/05).
When a player repeatedly blanks, the chance of scoring again increases. The obvious example is João Pedro (£7.5m) scored two Gameweeks in a row just as everyone was selling it.
It’s not magic or fate, it’s just numbers returning to normal.
The magnifying glass
Remember early in the season when Ollie Watkins (£8.5 million) and Morgan Rogers (£6.8 million) were in large hands? When a player has a lot of ownership, every blank action becomes dramatic, every swipe becomes meaningful, and every timing feels personal. Those were the times when it was heavily discussed and debated.
Now both are owned by fewer managers (<10% ownership). The emotional spotlight is gone. People don't care anymore, just as they now care about the Pedros or the Semenyos. One day people might not care about Semenyo anymore. We remember the dramatic, not the ordinary.
Sunk cost fallacy
Arkes & Blumer describe the ‘sunk cost fallacy’ as continuing something only because you have already invested in it. Sometimes we don’t keep players because they perform. We hold them because we have already held them. So when we finally sell, the emotional memory of previous blanks stays with us. If the player scores immediately after we sell, it feels not only like an accident, but also like a betrayal. Even if he is blank again for the next five Gameweeks.
If you’re still reading at this point, congratulations. You are not cursed. You’re not out of luck. You’re not the villain of your own FPL storyline either. You are just a human brain trying to find patterns in the chaos. And sometimes chaos really scores in the week you sell it.
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