The factors that could decide the ultra-tight Aaron Judge-Cal Raleigh AL MVP race

The factors that could decide the ultra-tight Aaron Judge-Cal Raleigh AL MVP race

LAS VEGAS – Aaron Judge clinched his first two American League MVPs during voting.

If the Yankees captain goes on to capture a third, it will be a much tighter finish.

The results of a heated AL MVP voting will be announced Thursday night, a two-man race between judge and Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Judge is vying to become the fourth Yankee to win three MVPs – joining franchise icons Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra – although Raleigh is expected to give him a serious run for his money in the 30 votes cast by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) singles against the Toronto Blue Jays. Robert Sabo for NY Post

Judge won the award unanimously in 2024 and received 28 of 30 first-place votes in 2022 over then-Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani.

But Raleigh stands in the way this year after putting together a record-setting season in which the switch-hitter smashed 60 home runs — edging Judge’s AL record of 62 but setting the single-season record for catchers, switch-hitters and the Mariners.

That he started 121 of his 159 games at catcher and endured the grind of the position cannot be discounted, especially considering his strong framing stats and the way he handled a top pitching staff.

Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays. Nick Turchiaro-Imagn images

From an overall offensive perspective, however, Judge was on a different level. He captured his first batting title by hitting .331, while his .457 on-base percentage, .688 slugging percentage and 1.144 OPS also all led the majors — and none of the categories were particularly close.

His OPS-plus of 215 (adjusted for league and margin factors, with 100 being the league average) was well above Raleigh’s 169.

Judge was behind in the home run department, hitting 53 while missing 10 games with a right flexor strain that limited him to DH duties for a month after returning from the injured list.

During his 95 games in right field, Judge recorded three defensive runs saved.

Wins Above Replacement isn’t the ultimate in MVP voting — and there are arguments that it doesn’t value catchers properly — but Judge led in both versions of it.

His 9.7 bWAR significantly exceeded Raleigh’s 7.4, while his 10.1 fWAR was better than Raleigh’s 9.1.

Still, it is expected to be an exciting race. It’s possible there’s some voter fatigue with Judge, who has made his eye-popping stats seem a bit duller in recent years — despite becoming just the third player in MLB history to hit at least 50 home runs and win a batting title in the same season this year.

There’s also the fact that the MLB Players Association, in a vote among fellow players, named Raleigh both Player of the Year and AL Best Player of the Year – likely an acknowledgment of how difficult it is to produce offensively at the demanding position where Raleigh plays.

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