… becomes manageable as long as the worst-case scenario is avoided. At least that is my reading of one New study by Allan Hsiao from Stanford University. Although I suppose the author disagrees with my interpretation of his results.
We know that it is increasingly complex to get flood insurance in coastal areas, because insurance companies cannot calculate the risks of rising sea level in combination with more volatile and extreme weather. This has become a few characteristics in cities such as Miami practically unsaleable, but it even influences real estate prices in the UK, where we are not dealing with hurricanes.
In his studies, Allan Hsiao can concentrate on the impact that rising sea level can have on cities in general and their infrastructure. He is not focused on insurance premiums, because governments are usually confident. However, he focuses on the costs in terms of infrastructure that is permanently unusable because it is under water.
By analyzing satellite data, he can rank the 30 largest cities through the percentage of infrastructure that risk the rise in sea level. The table below shows that for a sea level rise of 1m, Osaka, Jakarta and Tokyo the greatest possible loss of infrastructure. But once you go to 2m or 3 million sea level rise, the cities that run much more risk are Chinese and Southeast -Asian cities, such as Bangkok and Shanghai, which are mainly affected.
Top 10 large cities that risk the rise in sea level
Source: HSiao (2025)
Good news (relatively speaking), then that the current climate models remain the rise in sea level for sea level to 2100. Looking through the table above, this indicates that the damage to infrastructure will probably remain small and manageable due to the rise in sea level (although Osaka can be the exception between the 30 largest cities).
However, if our predictions are too pessimistic and we come to the tail ends of the forecast of the sea level rise, for example, because we are not on our way to decipher the economy or because of the tipping point effects that cause an accelerated melting of polar ice caps, we are in trouble. The graphs below show that damage to land and infrastructure starts to speed up quickly as soon as the sea level rise is greater than 2 m.
Projected damage due to the rise in sea level
Source: HSiao (2025)
I think that leaves us three options:
We do nothing and hope that our models are correct in predicting the rise in sea level of 1 million or less (I call this the ‘what may be wrong’).
We continue to speed up the decarbonization of our economy to ensure that we have a margin of safety, in case our predictions are too optimistic (but that would require the coordinated efforts of all countries in the world, including the US).
We increase our efforts in adapting climate change to ensure that when seen levels rise, our infrastructure does not drown.
Guess which path in my opinion is the most likely outcome.
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