(www.investorideas.com Newswire)
The US dollar just delivered the clear follow-through we signaled on Sunday, while EURUSD respected its bullish structure all the way to the pip.
Today is all about whether the momentum continues or whether the markets attempt a fake-out on Monday.
USD Index (DX.F)
In yesterday’s Lab Note #50 we wrote the following:
“Resistance Cluster: 98.40-98.60 (50% Fibo + Previous Highs + Top Wedge)
Support: 97.90-98.00
Explanation: Strong convergence overhead, which increases the chance of correction.”
What happened earlier today?
Exactly what we warned about.
The USD index failed to break above the mentioned resistances, which translated into a reversal and a collapse below the lower wedge line, leading to the bearish scenario we highlighted. Today’s low point? 97.88 (slightly below yesterday’s support zone).
Huge congratulations to everyone who took this step – absolutely a textbook example of design.
What now?
Sell signals in the fourth half of the year remain active. Therefore, the downward pressure remains dominant as long as DX.F remains below the broken wedge line (not a clean invalidation). In other words, there is a second leg lower on the table unless the bulls return quickly and decisively and defend the 97.90-98.00 floor.
If they fail? We could see a possible retest of recent lows and the broader support area we discussed
Lab note #46.
EURUSD
Let’s start with yesterday’s most important levels:
“Resistance: 1.1750-1.1763
Support: 1.1683 → if broken: 1.1616-1.1626
Notes: Holding above the previously broken upper line of the black channel = bullish; close back down = deeper correction risk.”
What happened?
Bulls held the upper channel line perfectly which caused the bounce (we expected) directly into the marked resistor. Another clean response, another spot-on prediction.
And again, props to everyone who rode this move.
What now?
As long as EURUSD remains above the black channel, the pressure remains:
- First target: top edge of the orange consolidation
- If today closes above that, we will likely see a bullish continuation towards 1.1800,
- Or possibly even deeper into the red resistance zone of 1.1816-1.1820.
If the bulls lose the channel?
The momentum shifts quickly and correction risk returns immediately.
Lab Takeaway – What should traders focus on today?
1. DX.F is still vulnerable. As long as we are under the broken wedge -> sellers are in control. Don’t let this fade unless we get a real bullish invalidation.
2. EURUSD still has upside room -> but only as long as the channel holds. If you lose the channel, the image will be reversed. Staying above will open the door to another run at 1.1800+.
3. Today is all about affirmation. Both the dollar and the euro reached their early targets and now traders should pay attention to the structure, not the noise:
– Does DX.F defend support, or slide under it?
– Does EURUSD respect the channel, or close under it?
4.
If you swapped yesterday’s route map -> great job. If you haven’t -> today is the day to track continuation versus reversal.
This week’s cleanest setups come after today’s confirmation moves.
See you on the next chart.
Anna
PS If today’s Free Lab seems useful, imagine working with the entire map instead of just one piece of it. Premium Lab Notes give you the complete picture: gold, silver, crypto, breakout levels, error signals, and the targets that are actually moving accounts.
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