Selected by the Astros with the No. 5 overall pick in 2015, Tucker has been an impact hitter dating back to the 2019 season. He has slashed a combined .276/.361/.514 (141 wRC+) in that time and hasn’t had a single individual season where he’s hit “worse” than 21% better than the average hitter. That came in 2019, his first partial season. Since 2021, Tucker has consistently shown enough pop to hit more than 30 home runs. He reached 25 steals three times and continually increased his walk rate, while also lowering his strikeout rate — so much so that Tucker has walked more times than he has blown over the last two seasons (15.3% to 15.2%).
A few strange, if not outright, injuries have hampered his reputation a bit. Tucker played at a full-fledged MVP level in 2024 before taking a ball to the shin in mid-June. The Astros initially called it a contusion and then a bone bruise. Tucker’s stay on the IL lasted months, much to the chagrin of Houston fans who were perplexed that said injury could take so long to heal. Ultimately, the Astros revealed in September that Tucker had been diagnosed with a fracture somewhere along the way. It was the kind of vague, puzzling and frustrating injury absence that has become a recurring theme within the Astros organization.
A similar sequence played out in 2025, after Tucker’s trade to the Cubs. He was a juggernaut through the first three months of the season, hitting .291/.396/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 home runs in his first 366 trips to the plate. Tucker fell into a deep slump and after a few months it was reported that he had suffered a small fracture in his hand in June. He played through it. Whether that injury was directly responsible or not, Tucker still “struggled” (by his standards) in July and August, hitting a combined .232/.363/.345 (109 wRC+). He suffered a calf injury in early September and only returned for the last three games of the season. Tucker homered in the playoffs and hit generally well through 32 at-bats.
It’s not the kind of massive platform year a top free agent would want, but Tucker was 43% better than average as measured by wRC+ dating back to 2021. He has historically been an above-average right fielder. Tucker has made four All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards and also has a Gold Glove to his name. If he’s healthy, there’s nothing he can’t do right. He will also hit the market ahead of his age-29 season.
A deal that easily exceeded $400 million could have been expected had Tucker stayed healthy and kept up the production he posted through late June. The question now is more about whether he can reach the $400 million mark, or if he will… “only”… make a deal in the mid-300s.
We know some of the teams that will pursue Tucker, but let’s take a look at his most likely landing spots, based on roster composition and salary prospects, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him on board.
Known/likely suitors (listed alphabetically)
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays will likely prioritize retention Bo Bichette First and foremost, we don’t want to let a popular homegrown star get away if they have plenty of long-term payroll room. Executives, agents and pundits are all expecting an active winter in Toronto, however, after the Jays were just two outs after winning their first World Series in more than three decades.
It sounds crazy, but the Jays likely have the payroll space to add both players long-term. That’s obviously not an A probably scenario, but it wouldn’t be that different from the Rangers’ half-billion-dollar spending four years ago when Texas signed Corey Seager ($325MM), Marcus Semien ($175MM) and Jon Gray ($56MM) all in the same low season.
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