tl;dr: Albemarle County’s real estate market began slowing in early 2025 and continued its slowdown as the year progressed
We’re only looking at closed resale homes in Albemarle County through 2025 so far
I looked at the data quarterly instead of monthly because a) we don’t have that much volume, and I don’t like looking month to month; Monitoring the market too closely is counterproductive.
Median days on market per quarter – 2025
- Q1 2025: 16.5 days (180 sales)
- Q2 2025: 7 days (407 sales)
- Q3 2025: 24 days (319 sales)
- Q4 2025: 26.5 days (272 sales)
The second quarter looks like it was the highlight of the market. (read on to find out that the first quarter was really the peak) Real estate moved at a median of seven days, which was the fastest pace of the entire year. The second quarter also had the highest transaction volume with 407 closings.
Then things changed, and I felt it (and so did others). The average number of days on market more than tripled between the second and third quarters, from seven to 24 days. This shift is consistent with the July 2025 market correction we saw in the earlier analysis.
The market remained a little slower than we expected during the fourth quarter median DOM at 26.5 days. Transaction volume also fell significantly in the second half of the year – from 407 sales in the second quarter to 272 in the fourth quarter – a decrease of 33%.
The pattern is quite clear: a strong first half with the second quarter peaking in 2025, followed by a fairly significant slowdown that lasted until the end of the year.
Closed data looks more into the past than ratified contract data…
… So I was looking at ratified contract data in Albemarle County since early 2025
Median days on market per quarter – 2025
Based on approved contract date
- Q1 2025: 6 days (261 contracts)
- Q2 2025: 12 days (413 contracts)
- Q3 2025: 25 days (283 contracts)
- Q4 2025: 34 days (272 contracts)
The contract data tells a clearer story than the closing data. The first quarter was actually the hottest part of the market, with an average DOM of just six days. In the second quarter, things started to slow down, doubling to twelve days. Then the market declined significantly in the third quarter (25 days) and continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter (34 days).
Some of the slowdown can be attributed to the typical seasonal slowdown; maybe some of it had to do with the elections, and I would say the regime’s actions are damaging the national economy and the psychology of real estate consumers.
Contract volume peaked in the second quarter 413 contracts, then fell down 31% Unpleasant 283 in the third quarter and fell another 22% to 220 in the fourth quarter. That’s a 47% decline in contract volume between peak and Q4.
The pattern matches what we saw in the closing data: but the timing of the contract shows that the slowdown started earlier than the closures suggested. Properties that went under contract in the second quarter (when the DOM was already doubling) closed in the third quarter, which explains why closing data showed a big shift there.
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