TAMPA, Fla. – All four of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ wins have come at the last minute, coming from behind.
The 49ers, this Sunday’s visitors, also know all about closing time. They emerged with a matching 4-1 record in one-score weekly matches, including last Thursday’s Los Angeles escape.
“If you look at what we just did, we’ve been in a similar situation,” 49ers cornerback Renardo Green said. “I think it will be a survival of the fittest.”
Last year at Raymond James Stadium, the 49ers were the last team standing — or joyfully sprinting off the field — after winning on a Jake Moody walk-off field goal.
At about 7:30 PM ET in this encore, the sun will have just set here, and Sunday’s outcome could certainly be in doubt.
“The NFL produces a very good product,” 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. “It’s stressful playing a four-quarter game and it comes down to the last play of the game, but I know the fans love it.”
Here are five ways the 49ers can beat Tampa Bay and improve to 4-0 on the season:
1. NO MAYFIELD MAGIC
Baker Mayfield was 0-for-4 in his career against the 49ers, including losses the past two seasons. But he’s getting MVP consideration early in the season.
“Baker Mayfield is a great player. He has really emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL,” rookie defensive lineman Mykel Williams said. “It’s always exciting when you get the chance to compete against someone like that.”
While Williams has yet to meet him, linebacker Fred Warner is a four-time winner vs. Mayfield (2019 Browns, 2022 Panthers, 2023-24 Bucs). “He’s playing the position at the highest level I’ve ever seen him,” Warner said, noting Mayfield’s decisiveness throwing the ball.
Mayfield has thrown for ten touchdowns and had just one interception, which is one more than the 49ers have intercepted all season; their NFL record drought is 12 games without a pick dating back to last season. “We’re just saying this is the week to get one,” Green said. “We will have our chances and it is up to us to capitalize on them.”
A matchup to watch: 49ers sack leader Bryce Huff against Bucs with right tackle Charlie Heck, who started for the 49ers in the final two games of last season.
2. FRED’S CHESS MATCH
Mayfield is well aware of Warner’s All-Pro abilities as the 49ers’ defensive maestro and the one tasked with leading Sunday’s upset. “We have to know where (No.) 54 is and not let him ruin the game for us,” Mayfield said.
Warner is five tackles shy of passing Patrick Willis (949) for most in 49ers history, and Warner’s 50 tackles rank third in the NFL this season behind Miami’s Jordyn Brooks (57) and Washington’s Bobby Wagner (56).
Mayfield admired the chess match Warner played last game with Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, whose visual cues tried to throw off Warner’s tracking sense. Warner has forced two fumbles (one recovered), defended three passes, made two tackles for loss, and was at the epicenter of last Thursday’s fourth-down stop in Los Angeles.
3. MAXIMIZE McCAFFREY
OK, so Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (91 for 282 yards), and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in his past nine games, dating back to last season’s four-game cameo.
“Last year obviously wasn’t the year I wanted, but I moved on. I moved on,” McCaffrey said. “I’m looking forward to this week.”
He is still the 49ers’ biggest offensive weapon, as evidenced by his team-leading 39 receptions for 387 yards and three scores. “I haven’t seen anyone stop him. You hope to slow him down,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said Friday. “If you can limit the yards after the catch, that’s the most important things for him. He’s very difficult to bring down in the open field.”
With Milpitas native Vita Vea anchoring the Bucs’ defensive front, opponents are averaging 92.4 rushing yards per carry, though it gave Seattle a season-high 122 last Sunday. The Bucs have yielded four rushing touchdowns (one in four of five games).
McCaffrey, an NFC South rival when he was in Carolina from 2017 to 2022, continues to pursue 14th-year linebacker Lavonte David. McCaffrey said: “I’m tired of him. No, he’s a great player. He always brings a big challenge and always plays the game the right way. And he never gets enough credit.”
4. WING AND A PRAYER
Mac Jones looks to finish 4-0 as the 49ers’ fill-in starter for Brock Purdy. Jones was in too much pain to throw during Thursday’s practice as he deals with oblique and knee injuries, plus a sore throwing arm in the last game. Dual-threat option Adrian Martinez, last year’s UFL MVP, is one play away from the 49ers’ quarterback throne.
Jones’ mobility has never been his biggest asset, despite his fourth-and-1 conversions. He should still find success broadcasting against a Bucs defense short on cornerbacks. Zyon McCollum (thumb), Jamel Dean (hip) and Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) are injured. But who would they defend anyway?
Jauan Jennings is set to return from a rib injury on September 28, but Ricky Pearsall will miss his second straight game with a right knee injury. Kendrick Bourne is coming off a 10-hit blockbuster as he revived his Patriots past with Jones.
5. Canceled blank
Bucs rookie Emeka Egbuka is the first player in NFL history with at least 25 receptions, 400 yards (445) and five touchdown catches in five career games.
“He’s powerful for such a young man,” 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “He has powerful hands and he clearly plays with a lot of confidence.”
Out for the Bucs are wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (fibula), as well as running back Bucky Irving (shoulder, foot). That’s why they’re wisely leaning on Egbuka, although No. 2 defender Rachaad White is also a danger.
Cornerback Deommodore Lenoir says his preparation isn’t focused so much on potential pass catchers. “I don’t look at receivers. I study coordinators,” Lenoir said. For the record, Josh Grizzard is flourishing (with Mayfield’s help) as the Bucs’ first-year offensive coordinator, following Liam Coen (2024), Dave Canales (2023) and Byron Leftwich (2019-22).
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