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Thai Court Ousts PM about Cambodia telephone conversation row: what happens afterwards?
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Thai Court Ousts PM about Cambodia telephone conversation row: what happens afterwards?

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The Paetongtarn Shinatra of Thailand has been rejected as prime minister by the Constitutional Court for a violation of ethics after just a year in power, which reduces the country and its stuttering economy in more uncertainty.
Paetongtarn, who was the youngest Prime Minister of Thailand, is the sixth prime minister of or supported by the billionaire Shinatra family who is removed by the army or judiciary in a tumultuous struggle between two decades for power between the warring elites of the country.

From his judgment, the court said that Paetongtarn violated the ethics in a leaked telephone conversation in June, in which she appeared to KowTow to Cambodia’s former leader when both countries are about to be about an armed border conflict. Fighting broke out weeks later and lasted five days.

What happens afterwards?

Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechahaachaha and the current cabinet will supervise the government in a care capacity until a new prime minister is elected by parliament, on a date that is decided by the speaker of the house. The Constitution does not specify a time frame for when the Lower House has to meet.

The court’s ruling opens the door to a flurry of dealing and horse trade between parties and other power brokers, where the central figure is almost certainly the influential father of Paetongtarn and former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinatra, 76, the billionaire founder of her PHEU Thai party. With many competing interests, the process can take time.

The commitment is high, with the prevailing coalition having a razor-dunne majority of only seven seats, which means that any shifts in the alliance of the Alliance can be expensive for PHEU Thai and the political dynasty of Shinawatra.

Who could be Thailand’s next PM?

There are five remaining eligible candidates from those who were proclaimed before the 2023 elections. PHEU Thai initially had three, but now with just one, Chaikasem Nitisiri, 77, a former Minister of Justice and Attorney General who has held a low profile, but said he is ready to perform.

Another possibility is Anutin Charnvirakul, 58, an ambitious former Minister of the Interior and Deputy Prime Minister whose Bhumjaithai party left the coalition of Paetongtarn in June.

The current Minister of Energy Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, former Deputy Prime Minister Jurin Laksanawisit and former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Oop, a general who led a coup of 2014 against the last PHEU Thai government are also eligible. Prayuth, 71, is retired from politics and is currently a royal adviser.

What is needed to become Thailand’s prime minister?

A candidate needs an approval of 50 legislators before the house can vote. The support of more than half of the current 492 members of the Lower House – or 247 votes – is required to become prime minister.

If the candidate fails, the house must come together again and the process is repeated for other nominated candidates, until a prime minister is chosen, without a time limit for the process.

What are the possible scenarios?

The chances that PHEU Thai retains premiership by Chaikasem will largely depend on whether Thaksin, despite the resignation of Paetongtarn, still has an accommodation with the conservative establishment of Thailand, which has an extensive political influence and can easily torpedo.

While the old guard has a restless history with Thaksin, some analysts say they can see him as the least of two evils. A weakening of Thaksin’s power could lead to an early election and open the door for the People’s Party, a progressive and hugely popular opposition with an institutional reform agenda that threatens the interests of conservatives and the royalist army.

Despite his limited political experience, Chaikasem as Prime Minister might be a pleasant stopgap solution, but he would have difficulty carrying out reforms or having a flat luining economy start. Political uncertainty could festive and the economic prospects can remain gloomy for some time.
Other scenarios include Bhumjaithai -party leader Anutin as Prime Minister, who would need support from the coalition he fled and of the People’s Party, the greatest strength in parliament, which has indicated that it can support him if he is committed to an early election. Another is an uncomfortable political compromise that sees the return of retired general Prayuth, who should work with bitter enemy PHEU Thai.

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