Tensions in the Middle East: Will the stock market open lower on Monday? Analysts warn of volatility as crude rises – The Times of India

The stock market is expected to react negatively when trading resumes, with analysts warning that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could weigh heavily on investor sentiment and cause a volatile start to the week, market experts quoted by PTI said.The US and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, while Iranian state media confirmed early Sunday that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attack, sharply increasing geopolitical risks.Market participants said the scale and duration of the conflict will determine how deep and long-lasting the impact on stocks could be. Geopolitics aside, investors will also keep an eye on macroeconomic data, global market signals and foreign investor activity during the truncated trading week, with markets closed on Tuesday for Holi.

Sentiment has already become fragile after the weekend’s escalation, said Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart Ltd.“For an oil-importing economy like India, persistently high crude prices pose risks to inflation, fiscal balance and interest rate cut expectations. This external shock has emerged at a technically vulnerable time for the market,” Meena said.He added that markets are likely to open on a cautious to negative trend amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising crude oil prices.Investors will simultaneously react to domestic factors, including third-quarter GDP data and monthly car sales figures, while the upcoming IIP and PMI data will further shape expectations around economic momentum.“Globally, key economic data from the US and China, along with crude price trajectory, will impact risk appetite. The direction of FII flows will remain the key driver of index moves in the near term,” Meena said.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.87 percent to $72.87 a barrel, reflecting rising concerns in the energy market.Manoranjan Sharma, chief economist at Infomerics Ratings, highlighted the broader economic implications and said the conflict could affect global stability.“The simmering tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated sharply on February 28, 2026, significantly affecting global energy security and economic stability,” Sharma said, adding that higher energy prices are already creating inflationary pressures for India.VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, warned that crude oil prices remain the key risk factor.“The short-term impact will be negative. Crude oil prices have risen and if crude oil prices remain high for a longer period of time, our trade balance and balance of payments will be affected as we import about 85 percent of our oil needs,” he said.He added that the medium-term market trajectory would depend on how long the conflict continues. “The market will react very negatively,” Vijayakumar said.Analysts also noted that markets ended last week under pressure. The BSE Sensex fell 1,527.52 points or 1.84 percent, while the Nifty fell 392.6 points or 1.53 percent on geopolitical concerns and weakness in technology stocks, said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said investors will closely monitor domestic indicators such as manufacturing and services PMI data, industrial production figures and monthly car sales for signs of demand resilience.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These views do not represent the views of The Times of India)