“We have reduced FY26-28th EPS with 8-15% on lower volumes and marges for JLR and India PVS. We expect an EPS decrease of 19% in FY26E, followed by only 8% CAGR over FY26-28th. Our FY27-28 EPS estimates are 12-21% below the street.
The share price of TATA Motors rose by 3% to day The height of RS 653 on BSE on Monday at a previous closure of RS 633.
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The report stated that the fall in Q1 EBITDA was led under Jefe by lower margins in JLR and India PVS. JLR wholesale fell by 11% JoJ with a lower turnover in the US (rate impact), VK and Europe.
India PV volumes fell by 10% JoJ and EBITDA fell 37% Joj as the margin fell to 4.0% (14-QTR low). India CV -Volumes also fell 6% yoj, but Ebitda was flat yoj when the margin 60 BP yoj rose to 12.2%, according to the Jefferies report.
On the rising headwinds at JLR, the Global Brokerage Said While the US Trade Deals with UK/EU at 10-15% Tariffs Bring Some Relief, We Believe JLR Will Continue To Face Severe Business Pressures Due to Rising Competition and Additional ACQUTION Tax, and Bev Transition, While its Key Models (RR, RR Sport and Defender) Are Now 2-4 Years Old.
After a strong CAGR of 45% compared to FY21-23, the wholesaler in the truck industry were flat in FY24 and 4% JOJ fell in FY25/1QFY26; We expect a modest 3% CAGR compared to FY25-28E, according to the report.
In the long term, the Jefferies report said that JLR is being put under pressure, including raised competition and rates in China, higher guarantee costs and BEV transition, while the most important models are starting to age, in India, the PV market share of TTMT has been slipping and the CV’s demand is not claimed.
The company reported a steep 63% on an annual basis (yo -y) decrease in the consolidated net profit for the quarter of June (Q1FY26). For the quarter ending on June 2025, the consolidated net profit from TATA Motors fell to RS 3,924 Crore of RS 10,514 Crore in the same period last year.
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The total turnover of the company from the activities was RS 1.04 Lakh Crore, marginal by 0.3% reducing RS 1.07 Lakh Crore registered in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
The company attributed the moderation of performance to a challenging demand environment and stated that it will concentrate on strengthening the foundations of the company. The measures set out include reducing tariff effects by brand lever, improving the product mix and implementing targeted actions to improve the margins of the contribution.
In the current calendar year so far, the shares of Tata Motors have fallen by 13% and have fallen by 39.98% in the last year.
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