Latest Updates Around The World
The Association of Mortgage Bankers (M.B.A.) announced Sunday that it expects total mortgage origination volume for single-family homes to rise to $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from an expected $2.0 trillion in 2025. Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development, spoke at the 2025 annual convention and expo; Joel […]
Weekly home inventory data In recent years, the seasonal peak in our active listings has occurred in October or November, especially when mortgage rates began to rise late in the year. However, in mid-June I noticed some shifts in the housing market, after which mortgage rates fell below 6.64% – a level that has generally […]
Weekly inventory data In recent years our inventory data has grown steadily in August, but this year it is not. I initially believed that we had not yet reached the peak of the active inventory in 2025, but I have proven that it is wrong. Now we usually experience in the phase in which Inventaris […]
Mortgage spreads In 2025 my prediction for mortgage spreads was for them to improve by 0.27%-0.41%with an average of 2025 of 2.54%. As the volatility compresses and the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cut cycle, just like in 2024, the spreads must improve. With Mortgage spread to 2.15%last week, the improvement reached 0.39%, so we are […]
Looking forward, however, purchasing applications have just had their best eight weeks of the year and this data line usually only reflects 30-90 days later in the sales data. So we can still see a growth in the existing home sales as the year progresses. We really need 12-14 weeks of consistently positive weekly purchase […]
“The mortgage interest rate fell further last week, with the 30-year fixed rate to the lowest level since last September to 6.34%,” said Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist of MBA. “The interest rates have generally risen after the FOMC meeting last week, but remain in a reach that should continue to lead […]
Home inventory The best story about housing in 2025 was the stock growth, which looks closer to what a normal housing market looks like. After the extreme sellers market that followed COVID-19, we experienced unhealthy housing market conditions at the end of 2020. At the beginning of 2021 I was talking about the need for […]
10-year revenue and mortgage interest In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series: Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25% The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70% In general, 2025 is on schedule with my prediction. The return of 10 years has remained within its correct reach in response to the […]
Weekly inventory data In recent years our weekly inventory data generally achieved the highest point in October or November, which is later than in the pre-covide era. Around mid -June, when the mortgage interest rate started to fall, I saw a slight shift in the data. If you had asked me if I expected that […]
10-year revenue and mortgage interest In my forecast of 2025 I expected the following series: Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 7.25% The return of 10 years fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.70% Now the 10-year return had a noticeable step on Friday because it traded around 4.34% before Jackson Hole’s comments came out of Powell, and […]
