The cutoff for Super Two arbitration in the offseason will likely be around two years and 139 or 140 days of service time, MLBTR has learned. MLB should complete the shutdown within the next few weeks.
The Super Two should show a slight increase this year compared to last season, when the limit was 2,132 years of service. Players are automatically eligible for arbitration if they have three years of service and do not yet have a guaranteed contract. The top 22% of players have been employed for between two and three years Also qualify (as long as they spent at least 86 days of the previous season on the active roster or the MLB injured list).
Qualifying for early arbitration is a nice boost to a player’s earning potential. He earns a salary above the MLB minimum a year earlier than most other players in the 2-3 age range. Arbitration salaries are also designed to escalate as a player builds service, so there are even more benefits in the coming years if you work on a larger platform.
Here are the official thresholds from previous low seasons:
- 2024: 2,132
- 2023: 2,118
- 2022: 2,128
- 2021: 2,116
- 2020: 2,125
- 2019: 2,115
- 2018: 2,134
- 2017: 2,123
- 2016: 2,131
- 2015: 2,130
- 2014: 2,133
- 2013: 2,122
- 2012: 2,140
- 2011: 2,146
- 2010: 2,122
- 2009: 2,139
Matt McLain is the only player in the MLB to finish the year with exactly two years and 140 days of service. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the Cincinnati second baseman at a salary of $2.6 million. The league minimum for next year is $780,000, so it’s likely McLain will earn nearly $2 million more in just a few days (not to mention the escalating upside if the Reds offer him contracts in the coming years).
There are three pitchers with 2,139 years of service: Cincinnati starter Brandon WilliamsonSeattle reliever Jackson Kowarand Tampa Bay reliever Manuel Rodríguez. Their status won’t be known until MLB finalizes the cutoff, but neither of these players will be commanding much more than the league minimum anyway. They all spent most of last season (all of them, in Williamson’s case) on the injured list.
No one in the MLB has exactly 2,138 or 2,137 years of service. So it looks like the three players at 2,136 years old — Lucas Erceg, Patrick BaileyAnd Ryan Walker – will be the biggest misses. They were each projected between $1.9 million and $2.5 million if they were eligible for arbitration. That would be a nice development for the Giants, who would save about $4 million on an already lightweight arbitration class if Bailey and Walker indeed face another season near the minimum.
Blake Perkins, Kody Clemens, Bryan Hoeing And Zak Kelly are the other players who would have qualified for Super Two at the cutoff last year, but are likely to fall short with the slightly higher threshold. Grayson Rodriguez (2,129), Reese Olson (2,123), Bryan Woo (2,121), Andrew Abbott (2.119) and Elly Dela Cruz (2,118) are among the notable players who were a few weeks short.
Notable players who did qualify for Super Two status outside of McLain Zach Neto (2,170), Michael Garcia (2,168), Mason Miller (2,166), Brice Turang (2,165) and Francisco Alvarez (2.164). MLBTR’s projections for all arbitration-eligible players are available here.
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