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The conference championships have been completed and betting lines are now available for Super Bowl 60. Here is our favorite early spread pick.
Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots [Total: 46.5]
Best bet: Seahawks -4.5
The elite defense paved Seattle’s road to the Super Bowl. But the NFC Championship game highlighted that the Seahawks are as complete a football team as there is in the NFL. The Seahawks are the only team to have a PFF grade above 84.0 in all three facets of the game (offense, defense and special teams) since the 2016 Super Bowl champion New England Patriots.
While the Patriots have performed extremely well against the competition presented to them, the narrative element of their light schedule has an analytical justification: they rank 31st in strength of schedule to date.
This matchup is not favorable for the Patriots, whose offense wants to push the ball down the field (fourth highest success rate, 14.9%). The Seahawks’ high use of two-high coverages allows them to limit downfield shots, as they are one of four teams to surrender 15 or more yards on fewer than 12% of passes.
The Seahawks can also generate pressure (39.8%, seventh best) without dedicating extra bodies to the blitz (25.9%, 28th). That could make things difficult for Drake Maye, as the young quarterback is taking sacks at a high rate – of which there are many are not the result of poor protection but a function of holding the ball as play develops on the field. Maye has been charged with 22.4% of his sacks, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
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