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Game overview
The Texans have a score to settle with the Chiefs after suffering two losses to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in 2024, including a divisional round elimination. Both matchups played out almost identically, with Kansas City covering the spread.
Houston, possessed of key weapons and struggling with a porous offensive line, had no answers for Kansas City’s game plan in those battles. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo employed a masterful strategy to force Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to beat them left-handed, bringing in Nico Collins to take away the last established receiver on the roster and throw stunts and blitzes.
This time, the Texans have worked to improve these fatal flaws by starting from the front. Houston’s revamped offensive line took some time to ramp up, but has since impressed. Since Week 5, the unit has given up the sixth-lowest pressure rate (32.3%), highlighted by improvements against stunts (83.6 pass-blocking efficiency, fourth-best) and blitzes (87.7, sixth-best). Stroud also gets the ball out quicker (2.87 second time to throw), so this offense won’t be without answers despite the pressure.
But it’s the defense that continues to set the table for the Texans. Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. highlight a group that tops the NFL in numerous categories. The most important thing is that the defense doesn’t just give away points. Houston leads the NFL in drive percentage allowed (26.4%), having allowed points on just 34 drives this season.
Considering the Texans’ recent resurgence in the betting markets, winning the past two games outright as underdogs, and the Chiefs’ inability to cover a game in November, the value of this matchup lies with Houston and the hook.
QB Patrick Mahomes The heads of Kansas City: Less than 4.5 rush attempts (-138)
To no one’s surprise, the matchup between the Texans’ pass rush and one of the game’s best creators, Patrick Mahomes, will be key. Mahomes has struggled to limit sacks in recent weeks, posting a 19.8% pressure-to-sack rate and three or more sacks over the past five games. He has not crossed this line since week 6.
It’s a troubling trend, as the Chiefs offensive line will be down three starters due to injuries: Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor and Josh Simmons. Jaylon Moore and Wanya Morris are expected to step in at the tackle spots, while Mike Caliendo fills in at guard – a lineup that struggled mightily at the end of Kansas City’s Week 13 matchup with the Cowboys. With Moore, Morris and Caliendo on the field, the Chiefs offensive line generated just a 15.8 PFF pass-blocking grade and a whopping 50% pressure rate.
With Mahomes under fire left and right, finding routes to escape collapsing areas can be difficult. That also gives value to high-powered Texans rushers like Will Anderson Jr. passing to go over 0.75 bags (-105).
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