Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) [Total: 47]
Game overview
Since this market opened with the 49ers as three-point favorites, bettors have steadily pushed this line toward the Falcons. This trend is expected to continue as the injury reports are finalized, as the 49ers will once again be down several key starters.
While the expected return of George Kittle should provide a boost, quarterback Brock Purdy (toe) and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (knee) are officially out again, putting a damper on the potential of the 49ers’ offense. Kittle is a fantastic player, but without more help in the receiving game to take the focus off him, he will face a tough challenge against a Falcons defense that has done a good job defending the tight ends. Through Week 6, they have limited tight ends to just 5.5 yards per coverage target and a 56.3% completion percentage, both top three in the NFL.
The Falcons have quietly crept up the defensive line in several key areas behind some improved play in recent weeks. They now have the highest eight points in EPA per play allowed (-0.086, sixth-best), average yards per play allowed (4.7, tied for fourth), third-down conversion rate allowed (32.1%, fourth) and number of drives allowing a touchdown (18.4%, sixth-best).
Offensively, Atlanta has been even more impressive in recent weeks, ranking sixth in PFF team offensive rating (77.3) and fifth in both EPA per game and offensive success rate. Add to that the fact that the 49ers will now have to navigate the rest of the season without the NFL’s highest-rated defensive player, Fred Warner (93.2), and the Falcons are primed for a big day.
This game isn’t a strong spot for the 49ers to be favorites as they have just an 0-2 record against the spread at home this season. Atlanta, on the other hand, has looked strong as an underdog, posting a 2-1 counter-the-spread record with two outright wins.
QB Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta Falcons: Over 215.5 passing yards (-120)
I’m focusing quite a bit on this game this week. As mentioned during the PFF Betting ShowI’m looking at some parlay angles from the same game that lean on big performances from Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson in the passing game.
The negative impact of Fred Warner’s absence on the 49ers’ defense cannot be understated. With Warner on the field, the defense ranks around league average in most efficiency metrics, including EPA per play allowed (0.001, 20th) and average yards per play allowed (5.3, 15th). But those numbers plummet in the small sample where he hasn’t been on the field, falling to last in both cases.
That offers an opportunity for Penix to attack through the middle with Drake London and from the backfield with Robinson. Robinson in particular can do tremendous damage in this game given the Falcons’ recent creativity in his lineup.
After Warner went down last week, the Buccaneers were able to generate 12.4 yards per coverage target, with Baker Mayfield posting a passer rating of 150.1.
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