Zoncor (TSX:SU) just hit a new twelve-month high. Investors who missed the rally in recent months are wondering whether SU stock is still undervalued and a good buy for a Self-Directed Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) or a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) focused on dividends and long-term total returns.
Suncor stock price
Suncor is trading near $65 per share at the time of writing. The stock is up from $45 last April and hasn’t been this high since 2008.
Contrarian investors who had the courage to buy Suncor for nearly $20 a share are enjoying the recovery. Suncor fell out of favor with the market in 2020 when it cut its dividend in the early weeks of the pandemic in an effort to maintain cash flow. This upset investors who owned Suncor because of its previously reliable distribution.
Suncor eventually reversed the dividend cut when the oil market stabilized and has steadily increased its payout since. In the spring of 2023, a new CEO took control of the company. Over the past two years, Suncor has made good progress in its efforts to turn around the company.
The company has reduced its workforce to streamline operations and improve efficiency. Suncor reported record production at its oil sands facilities in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, while also delivering record production at its refineries. Suncor’s integrated corporate structure, with manufacturing, refining and retail operations, historically attracted investors because of the balance provided by its diversified revenue stream.
This structure is coming back into focus as Canadian energy investors try to figure out how an increase in oil production in Venezuela will affect Canada’s oil sands producers. Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast need the type of oil produced in both Canada and Venezuela. As the US receives more supply from the South American country, there may be a decline in the amount of oil purchased from Canada.
The continued momentum in Suncor’s share price in recent days indicates that the market expects the company to experience limited negative effects from recent developments in Venezuela.
Risks
Oil prices have fallen significantly from their 2025 highs. In fact, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is selling for less than $60 per barrel, compared to more than $80 a year ago. Analysts broadly expect oil prices to remain under pressure through 2026, barring major supply disruptions due to geopolitical events. Production in Canada and the United States is at record levels. At the same time, OPEC is increasing production in an attempt to regain lost market share. On the demand side, China’s economy remains under pressure due to real estate market challenges and the impact of US tariffs. Global oil demand is still increasing, but analysts predict a surplus in the short term.
Possibility
Canadian oil producers are already benefiting from the increase in export capacity resulting from last year’s opening of the Trans Mountain expansion. Developments in Venezuela could prompt the Canadian government to build a new pipeline to connect Alberta producers to the coast. This would allow Suncor and its peers to increase production and sell oil at higher prices to global buyers without relying as much on the United States.
Time to buy SU shares?
The turnaround plan is going well, and Suncor’s integrated corporate structure means the company is less exposed to major negative movements in the oil market. Short-term volatility is expected, so a better entry point could emerge in the coming weeks, but oil bulls should feel comfortable owning Suncor at its current price even after the big run. For income investors, the 3.7% dividend yield pays well to weather the market turbulence.
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