Stock market forecast in the week of September 21 = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show a layout for US shares.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) rose 1.2%. The index is ~ 4% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 11% above the 200-day advancing average.
We have achieved another week without institutional sale, which means that all three indicators are again bullish.
SPX price and volume card for September 21, 2025
Performance comparisons
The technology sector ($ XLK) again surpassed last week, while consumers staples ($ XLP) Was the worst sector again, along with real estate ($ XLRE). Real estate also fell back on neutral bias.
S&P sector performance from week 38 of 2025
High beta ($ SHBB) Last week surpassed and low beta ($ SPLV) Under performed and fell on Bearish bias.
Sector style performance from week 38 of 2025
Gold ($ Gld) Last week past the US shares to lead the activa class, while Bitcoin ($ 4) underperformed. There were no changes in bias.
Acti -class performance of week 38 2025
COMMENTARY
In a movement that did not surprise anyone, the FOMC reduced by 0.25% in response to weakening labor data. Participants in the market were more interested in the future tariff path; How much more will be there will be. And in that area, messages from the Fed were mixed. It is likely that we have to see further decline on the labor market and/or reduced inflationary pressure before there are more cuts in the game.
Fed Chair Powell gets another chance to discuss the plan (or not) during a speech on Tuesday. We will also flash PMI just after the opening of the market, so expect volatility until the early afternoon. We also get the last GDP update for Q2 at 8:30 am Wednesday, followed by August PCE at 8:30 am on Friday.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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