Stock market views in the week of 24 August = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show an upward trend for US shares, although the institutional sale is increasing again.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) rose 0.3%. The index is ~ 3% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 9% above the 200-day advancing average.
The market came across more distribution days last week, which brings the total to 7. Price remains above 50 days and bounced on Friday, so the signal remains neutral for the time being. Volume on balance has also decreased in recent weeks and now rests on the progressive average.
SPX price and volume card for 24 August 2025
Performance comparisons
Energy ($ XLE) LED sectors higher, while the technology was oppressed ($ XLK). Energy and real estate ($ XLE & $ XLRE) Refused bullish bias.
S&P sector performance from week 34 of 2025
Small Cap value ($ IWN) surpassed for a second consecutive week, while the growth of large caps was the left ($ Practice). No changes in Bias; All styles are bullish.
Sector style performance from week 34 of 2025
Oil ($ Use) LED assets higher and Bitcoin ($ 4) underperformed. Gold ($ Gld) Is back to Bullish bias after some recent weakness.
Acti -class performance of week 34 2025
COMMENTARY
After 4 consecutive days selling in American stock indexes, Federal Reserve chairman Powell came to the rescue on Friday. During his comments from Jackson Hole, a possible shift in the interest discussion meant. In particular, most people focused on the next explanation:
“… with policy in restrictive areas, the baseline for views and the shifting risk balance can justify the adjustment of our policy
attitude.”
Those words were interpreted when an interest rate reduction comes in September. Some people continue, with the help of what Powell did not say as an indicator, the FED has stopped pursuing the 2% inflation objective as a short -term goal and will focus on work and economic growth. Time will learn it. Prior to the next FOMC meeting there is another round of inflation data (PCE, CPI and PPI)As well as the non-farming data of Augustus.
If/when the rates are lowered, expect a reduction in your interest payments in the short term (Savings accounts, interest -bearing payment accounts, money markets, short -term bonds, etc.).
A brief comment about the signals presented above, in particular the institutional sale. Given the relative weighting of technological shares (E.g. MAG 7)The index can suffer from market capposes, where Naste movements are caused by only a few shares. This can lower the total market, while most tickers are breaking or higher.
The tables above show that technology/communication sectors and mega/large cap growing styles stay behind last week and probably drove a lot of the promotion at an index level. Recent underperformers and/or bias tests are also reflected, which means that the large volume probably reflects the end of the redistribution of the summer assets, instead of an outright sale of shares (which we have discussed in recent weeks as a wise move for your participations).
This week we will get an updated Q2 GDP figure and the aforementioned PCE lecture for July on Friday. All this could be overshadowed by Nvidia income on Wednesday after the market.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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