S&P Global shares fall on weak 2026 forecasts, AI concerns

S&P Global shares fall on weak 2026 forecasts, AI concerns

S&P Global forecast 2026 earnings Tuesday below Wall Street expectations, with rising investor unease over the AI-driven disruption sweeping through the software and services sectors pushing shares to their lowest levels in more than two years.The company is grouped within the broader software and services sector because its core businesses, which include providing financial data, analytics and credit ratings, rely heavily on proprietary data sets and advanced computing tools.

S&P was caught up in last week’s broader market decline, as a devastating technological rout, fueled by concerns about rapid advances in AI and their potential to reshape parts of the software and services industries, swept the market.“AI fears are likely to persist, and stocks could be under pressure today unless there is a good explanation for the call,” ClearStreet analysts said.

S&P expects full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $19.40 to $19.65, compared with the average analyst estimate of $19.94, according to LSEG data.


For the fourth quarter, growth in several of its businesses, including ratings and indices, slowed from a year earlier.

Shares of the analytics company are down nearly 8% today and down about 20% so far this year. FactSet Research and Moody’s fell more than 2% and 6%, respectively, as the decline in S&P shares spilled over to its peers. Verisk and Nasdaq also fell. “It remains unclear whether AI will ultimately rely on or replace software infrastructure, but current market prices express the most bearish possible outcome, which we currently view as an overshoot,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

However, some analysts say AI-driven efficiency gains could still boost margins and help change sentiment on the stock.

S&P’s forecast comes as global technology companies ramp up bond issuance to finance the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure and cloud capacity, boosting demand for credit ratings.

The company posted fourth-quarter adjusted net income of $4.30 per share, compared to analysts’ estimates of $4.33.

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