Sort by Friday’s non-tender decisions

Friday was a key deadline on the offseason calendar: the last day on which teams could non-tender players in lieu of tendering them a contract in arbitration. It’s kind of an annual tradition. Once a year, a number of guys whose names make you think, “Oh, he’s not bad,” aren’t signed after all because their performance doesn’t match their expected salary. This year the non-tender group was larger than I’m used to, so I think it’s worth a recap.

A classic archetype of the players who are not offered is the older breakout, who regresses to the mean in subsequent years. An example: Adolis GarciaArguably the most famous player in this group, he burst onto the scene in 2021 as a 28-year-old rookie and posted 10.6 WAR in his first three full seasons. He played on the 2023 World Series champion Rangers, hitting eight home runs and a record 22 RBI, and taking home ALCS MVP honors.

The next two years weren’t as quiet, with García posting a total of 89 wRC+ and 0.6 WAR. As he enters his age-33 season, it’s hard to expect a return to his top form; our projection systems think he’s more of a fourth outfielder than an everyday starter these days. The problem is, from Texas’ point of view, García made $9.25 million this season in his second year of arbitration. He would earn at least that much during his last passage through Arb. The Rangers looked around for alternatives. There were several free agent corner outfielders available with similar projections, and likely for less. And Texas probably went into Friday’s deadline thinking that the Marcus Semien/Brandon Nimmo salary swaps were on the horizon, which meant fewer vacancies in the outfield; Against that backdrop, García’s non-tender is not a big surprise.

I don’t think García is ready by any means. He would certainly not be the first player to bounce back after a few bad years. He still has tremendous power when he can turn the ball on. He is a solid defender in right field. He hasn’t lost a step. The problem is that the vague plate discipline often caused him to fall behind in the count, swing at pitches off the plate or strike out. García’s game always felt balanced on a knife’s edge, and when he’s too aggressive, pitchers just don’t give him enough to hit. Guys with that profile sometimes find out, but they usually do so through minor league deals or one-year deals with playing time incentives. Someone will definitely give him a chance, but given the contract situation, it just didn’t make much sense for the Rangers to do so.

Also a backup Jonah Heim played for the 2023 World Series team and promptly turned into a pumpkin, posting a 71 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR over the next two years. His receiving, his best skill when he debuted, has dropped to about average. He, too, was entering his final year of arbitration with a salary of around $6 million. Instead of offering him a contract within that range, the Rangers let him go.

Heim’s situation is not exactly the same as García’s. His contract is more affordable; it’s hard to find a backup catcher for much less, which is presumably the role he’s best suited for at this point in his career. But can Heim strike? Let’s put it this way: thirty-four catchers hit 300 or more times by 2025; Heim’s batting line was 33rd out of 34. Thirty-one catchers have struck out 600 or more times in the last two years; he ranks 30th out of 31. Even in a position where the bar for attack is low, Heim has not been a good option.

Like García, I do not see this non-tender as a sign that Heim does not belong in the major league. Decent defensive catchers – he certainly still meets that bar – can play in the big leagues forever, bouncing between teams as a backup on one-year contracts. And it’s not a foregone conclusion that he won’t regain some of his offensive prowess. I don’t make a habit of expecting 31-year-old catchers to regain lost skills, but “it’s less than 50%” and “it can’t happen” are not the same thing. But like García, Heim’s salary rose while his future prospects fell, and when the lines crossed, the Rangers pulled the plug.

These two headline this year’s roster of undrafted players, established Major League players who started for a playoff team most of us remember. There are plenty of other guys you’ll remember, though. Looking for out-of-this-world hitters? JJ Bleday, Will Brennan, Jake Fraley, Nathaniel Lowe, Christopher Morel, Michael TogliaAnd Ramón Urias all became cashiers. Together, that’s a lot of interesting options for veterans, none of which you would want to sign up as a starter in 2026.

Of that group, I think Morel is the most interesting rebound candidate. He has an obvious carry tool in elite bat speed, which he has turned into excellent power numbers at times. He also has a huge throwing arm; his body clearly rotates to generate power very well. Unfortunately, he struggled for a long time to make enough contact to properly use his power. In 2025, his swinging strike rate increased to an unplayable 19.4%. It’s not so much that Morel swings on bad pitches – he generally makes good swing decisions and swings on both more strikes and fewer balls than average – it’s just that he comes up empty a lot of.

If this was easy to fix, I’m pretty sure Morel would have fixed it. But difficult is not impossible. Every now and then a few clicks will change and a player will change from a depth option to J.D. Martinez. Teams with open roster spots – mainly rebuilding clubs – are doing good business by giving guys like Morel playing time and seeing what turns up. In fact, I think a lot of teams would have kept Morel in the fold, $2.5 million salary and all, because if he figures things out, you can imagine a very high ceiling. Power hitters in their prime are valuable if they don’t strike out as much as he does.

The Rays aren’t most teams, though. They have already declined a team option Pete Fairbankscontract, a move that only makes sense through a lens of extreme financial austerity. The Rays are one of the most money-hungry teams in the Majors. Combine that with the fact that they wanted to cut payroll, and Morel just didn’t fit the bill.

Lowe is another hitter who feels a little too good to be on this list, but context is key here. Lowe is heading into his final trip through arbitration, and while he had a poor start to the 2025 season, three straight good years before that meant he would be commanding an eight-figure salary. The Red Sox may not have a spot for Lowe next year Triston Casas back, and they’re generally not a team that spends a lot of money on the margins of their roster, so he was an easy non-tender candidate. That said, Lowe is a competent southpaw, and I’m pretty sure he’ll find himself in an almost everyday role this winter. It just won’t be for what he would have gotten in the Arb.

On the mound, relievers are normally the most common non-tender candidates, and this year was no exception. Jorge Alcalá, Taylor Clarke, Jake Cousins, Scott Efross, Sam Hentz, Colin Holderman, Mark Leiter Jr., Joey Lucchesi, Imprison Moreta, Eli Morgan, Eva Philips, Tayler Saucedo, Josh Sborz, Albert Suarez, Trent ThorntonAnd Josh Winckowski were all not tendered. Immetrywho you might be surprised to hear was on the Atlanta Braves after some late-season roster machinations, also joined the group.

I listed that group en masse because that’s how teams treat marginal relievers in the offseason. All of these guys have shown that they can knock out Major League hits at some point. None of them are firing on all cylinders right now. That sounds tailor-made for a minor league contract, or perhaps a major league deal with big playing time incentives. It’s the MLB version of throwing spaghetti at a wall; Sign four interesting relievers to cheap deals and see who becomes your reliever.

Phillips is a notable exception to that paradigm. He has been consistently effective in a high-leverage role for a while now. However, he will be freed after next season and is currently recovering from elbow surgery, which will keep him out for most of 2026. So there’s a good chance he signs a two-year deal that gives him a place to rehab and the team signs him to a bullpen option in a year.

Manoah is another interesting case. He was a 2022 All-Star and definitely one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he followed that up with a disastrous, subpar 2023, and then had Tommy John surgery in mid-2024 after shoulder and elbow injuries derailed his season. He still looked diminished upon his return in 2025, never reaching the majors and being a 40-man casualty. He’s an extremely interesting project because there’s no doubt the upside is there, but he hasn’t looked like a major league-caliber starter in a few years.

The non-tender deadline is rarely a huge source of talent for competing teams. That only makes sense; if these players were significantly better, their teams probably wouldn’t un-troll them. It’s more often than not a useful first read on teams’ financial situations heading into free agency, and from that perspective, I think the tea leaves point to more spending restrictions than I expected at the margins. The Rangers have non-tendered a few close calls and are in the process of cutting salary. The Rays did typical Rays things, but with more savings than usual. It’s not a huge signal, but I do think it points to a more moderate winter than expected.