Here are six historical factors to consider when taking down the Risen Star of 2026:
Prefer horses with early speed
While it is possible for late runners to win the Risen Star – Angel of Empire (2023) and Sierra Leone (2024) are recent examples – horses with early speed generally perform best. Nine of the last sixteen winners (56%) raced first, second or third after the first half mile, and three others raced in the front half of the field. Seven of the last nine winners were in the top three after the first half mile.
| Year | Winner | Position after the first 1/2 mile | 1/2 mile, 3/4 mile time (track condition) |
| 2025 | Size | 1st per 1.5 lengths (12 starters) | :46.92, 1:10.95 (fast) |
| 2024 | Sierra Leone | 9e with 6.25 lengths (12 starters) | :49.67, 1:14.74 (sloppy) |
| 2023 | Angel of the realm | 9e with 5.75 lengths (14 starters) | :47.50, 1:12.21 (fast) |
| 2022 | Epicenter | 1st per 1 length (10 starters) | :47.97, 1:12.25 (fast) |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | 3rd per 2 lengths (11 starters) | :48.45, 1:12.74 (fast) |
| 2020 (Div #2) | Modernist | 2i.e per 0.5 lengths (11 starters) | :48.57, 1:12.62 (fast) |
| 2020 (Div #1) | Mr. Monomoy | 1st per 0.5 lengths (11 starters) | :48.57, 1:12.85 (fast) |
| 2019 | War of the will | 2i.e per 2.5 lengths (14 starters) | :47.36, 1:12.20 (fast) |
| 2018 | Bravazo | 2i.e with heads (9 starters) | :47.96, 1:12.85 (fast) |
| 2017 | Givin | 5e with 9.5 lengths (11 starters) | :47.02, 1:11.98 (fast) |
| 2016 | Rifle runner | 4e with 4.5 lengths (11 starters) | :46.38, 1:11.33 (fast) |
| 2015 | International star | 6e per 6.5 lengths (9 starters) | :47.08, 1:12.16 (fast) |
| 2014 | Intensive holiday | 7e per 6 lengths (14 starters) | :48.14, 1:13.00 (fast) |
| 2013 | I hit a nerve | 11e with 7 lengths (12 starters) | :48.34, 1:12.74 (fast) |
| 2012 | The godfather | 3rd per 3 lengths (11 starters) | :48.72, 1:13.15 (fast) |
| 2011 | Mucho Macho Man | 2i.e per 1.5 lengths (10 starters) | :49.24, 1:13.65 (fast) |
Favorites are vulnerable and long shots often surprise
Since 2011, favorites have gone 4-for-16 (25%) in the Risen Star, passing at a slower rate than normal for favorites.
Winning favorites are outnumbered by winning long shots. The last 16 editions of the Risen Star have seen five major upsets from Ive Struck a Nerve (135.20-1), Bravazo (21-1), Modernist (12.80-1), Angel of Empire (13.70-1) and Magnitude (43.20-1).
Additionally, Chunk of Gold (43.30-1), Sun Thunder (16.60-1), Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1), Forevamo (40.60-1) and Albano (13.60-1) have all finished second in the Risen Star since 2011.
Look for horses leaving the Lecomte Stakes
The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, held at Fair Grounds in January, is the local preparation for the Risen Star. Seven of the last 16 Risen Star winners (44%) left the Lecomte: Magnitude (2025), Epicenter (2022), Mandaloun (2021), Mr. Monomoy (2020), War of Will (2019), International Star (2015) and Ive Struck a Nerve (2013).
Give preference to horses that have previously competed in stakes races
Experienced horses competing in stakes races perform best in the Risen Star, winning 15 of the last 16 editions. The only horse with no stakes experience to win the Risen Star since 2011 was Modernist, who won the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.
A recent one preparation race is useful
Fourteen of the last 16 Risen Star winners (88%) entered the Risen Star after competing in a recent prep race in January or February. The two exceptions were Gun Runner (2016) and Sierra Leone (2024), who first raced at the age of 3. Gun Runner and Sierra Leone were great talents who went on to become champions.
Asmussen and Cox are the best trainers
Trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have had a lot of success in the Risen Star.
Asmussen, a Hall of Fame inductee, has won the race four times with Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022) and Magnitude (2025).
Meanwhile, Cox’s three Risen Star wins have come in the past six years with Mr. Monomoy (2020), Mandaloun (2021) and Angel of Empire (2023).
Conclusions
History suggests that the most likely winner of the Risen Star is 2026 #5 Honcho chipwhich fits perfectly with the trends we have outlined.
Chip Honcho has plenty of early speed, which he demonstrated when he pushed the pace en route to victory in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds. Preparing for the Risen Star in January, he finished fourth (beaten by only 1 3/4 lengths) in the Lecomte Stakes. He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, and his defeat to Lecomte should see him start at attractive odds – he could even be a double-digit longshot.
In contrast, expected favorite #4 Paladin hasn’t run since December and is trying to emulate Gun Runner and Sierra Leone by winning the Risen Star in his three-year debut. Perhaps the advantage of recent racing experience will give Chip Honcho the edge he needs to pull off the upset.
Enjoy the race!
#trends #betting #Risen #Star #Stakes