In what will be one of the most shocking moves of the offseason, the Chicago White Sox signed famed Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal. At the beginning of the low season, many analysts expected Murakami to sign a deal worth more than $100 million. However, his market was much slower than expected due to swing and miss concerns, which led to the White Sox jumping into the race.
With the market for Murakami being so low, I’m a little disappointed that the Nats didn’t seem to make a move. Of course, we don’t know for sure, but the Nats name has never been associated with the Japanese slugger. On paper, Murakami would have been a great opportunity to sign with the Nats.
Munetaka Murakami is as big of a boom-or-bust player as you’ll find in free agency, even among Japanese imports. He has the potential to be a 40-home run bat, but also has a decent chance of flameout due to his swing and miss issues and lack of a defensive home. Basically, he could be Kyle Schwarber or he could be post-Texas Rangers Joey Gallo. At that price, I would have liked the Nats to be the team to figure it out.
In recent years, the soon-to-be 26-year-old has been one of the most feared power hitters in Japan. In 2022, he hit a whopping 56 home runs in the NPB. Since then strikeout rate has gone from about 21% to 28 or 29% and he hasn’t hit that many home runs. Last season, Murakami hit 22 home runs in 56 NPB games, and 24 overall. His slugging percentage of .663 was huge, but so was his K-rate of 28.6%.
Even with all that risk, Murakami would have been the most interesting option for the Nats at first base. You don’t find guys with 80 brute strength on trees. Murakami showed it too strong plate discipline including in Japan, where he ran more than 14% of the time in each of the past six seasons. Those with basic skills could compensate for some of the contact demands.
Considering he signed with the White Sox, Murakami was clearly also willing to sign with a rebuilding club. The contract should also be well within the Nats budget. It’s a little frustrating to see a team in a similar spot as the Nats make such a nice swing, while the Nats remain passive on the free agent market.
Murakami could have been the kind of player that really excited this fanbase as well. His power is absolutely ridiculous. The positive comparison for Murakami is Kyle Schwarber, and all Nats fans remember how much fun he was in 2021. Now that he’s 26 years old, Murakami isn’t a finished product yet either. It would have been very exciting, but I don’t think it was meant to be.
However, I understand why Paul Toboni would stay away. It’s clear from his weak market that MLB teams were petrified about his contact skills, or lack thereof. A two-year, $34 million deal may not be what his market expected it to be, but it’s still a significant commitment for a player with such a low floor.
There is a real chance that Murakami will not be able to make enough contact against MLB pitching and will simply return to Japan after his contract expires. However, there’s also a possibility that the White Sox got a 40-home run bat at a huge discount. These are the kind of bets Paul Toboni should be making.
The Nats had been without answers at the first base position for a long time and Murakami could have solved that problem. Considering the Nats signed Foster Griffin, Toboni clearly has an idea of what’s going on in NPB.
It’s a shame the Nats didn’t try to get involved in this, but I still have faith in the Toboni process. I’m curious to see what the Nats do at the first base position. Given the lack of internal options, it feels like they will have to bring someone in via free agency. Toboni has alluded to this in some of his interviews during the Winter Meetings.
A guy like Rhys Hoskins makes a lot of sense as a veteran right-handed bat who can add some punch. The Nats could use some right-handed power and Hoskins provides that. Hoskins enters his season at age 33, coming off a somewhat disappointing two-year tenure with the Brewers. He doesn’t have many advantages, but you know what you get.
Obviously this won’t happen this offseason, and I understand why, but I hope the Nats become players on the free agent market in the coming years. If the Nats show progress in 2026, Mark Lerner will have to open the checkbook or face the wrath of this fan base.
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