More than a third of the way through the NHL season, it’s safe to say the San Jose Sharks have exceeded expectations. They’re winning somewhat consistently for the first time in years, have stayed in the playoffs after the American Thanksgiving, and are providing the clearest glimpse into their future yet. But at the same time, some of their underlying numbers suggest they could be in for a rough ride at some point.
In fact, many of their shortcomings are highlighted by two players: forward Macklin Celebrini and goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. They needed both players to play well to stay in the playoffs, but they might not be able to keep that up forever.
Celebrini drags the Sharks offense to respectability
Simply put, the Sharks’ advanced offensive numbers are disproportionate to their position in the standings. They rank 25th in the NHL in points percentage, but their Corsi and Fenwick ratings are both easily dead last. On average, they record more than half of the scoring chances in their games, and it’s not like that has gotten better as the season has progressed; they have been out of bounds in twelve consecutive games.
How does such a team end up in the middle of the table in terms of goals scored? Enter a 19-year-old forward from North Vancouver named Celebrini.
Celebrini is second in the NHL in points and tied for first in assists. When he does score, it usually comes in waves: his twelve multi-point games are tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. His ability to constantly anticipate game situations gives him control over almost any attacking situation. Combine that with his incredible passing accuracy, shooting ability and ability to enter zones, and his dominance is almost single-handed swinging the Sharks offense in a positive direction. He has 14 more points than anyone else on the Sharks, and the player who sits comfortably in second place – Will Smith – has been Celebrini’s linemate in almost every game this season.
Celebrini’s success this season almost directly mirrors San Jose’s. The Sharks are 14-7-1 when Celebrini scores at least one point, and 0-7-2 when he doesn’t. The organization is thrilled to have such a great player on the roster, but they know asking a teenager to carry that much is a huge ask and he probably won’t be able to do it forever.
Askarov saves the shark defense
The Sharks’ offensive struggles don’t take place in a vacuum. With their offense struggling, their defense becomes overwhelmed and has no choice but to play on their heels. But just like the offense, the defense has a single player keeping them afloat in Askarov.
In his first season as a full-time NHL goaltender, Askarov’s workload is in the 97th percentile of all netminders in the league. His total of high-danger chances are in the 77th percentile, while his low-danger chances are only in the 31st percentile. Over the entire season, he has averaged 26.9 saves per game, well above the league average of 23.8. This is a ridiculous amount for any goaltender, let alone a 23-year-old in his first full NHL season.
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Despite all that, he has taken a step forward throughout the season, shaking off a rough start and playing like the goaltender the Sharks hoped he would be when they traded for him in the 2024 offseason. In his last 13 games, he has a 9-4-0 record with a 2.20 goals-against average and a .928 save percentage. After their first few games, the Sharks were allowing almost five goals a night. They are now at 3.29 goals per game, tenth worst in the league. That’s not bad considering the underlying numbers say they should probably finish last, or at least very close.
Askarov is right in the center of that inequality. He consistently puts in great performances to help the Sharks maintain the lead or stay in games. At the same time, the weaknesses of San Jose’s defense mean that he will succumb to that pressure from time to time, such as a recent loss to the Washington Capitals in which he allowed four goals in less than 18 minutes. The defense around him needs to improve because if it doesn’t, these types of losses will continue to happen.
Celebrini and Askarov headlined the future of sharks
If the Sharks can take anything positive from the underlying numbers, it’s that they’re proving just how good Celebrini and Askarov are. Both prove worthy of the hype they garnered long before their supposed primes. While they still have a relatively small sample size, the evidence suggests the Sharks have a number one center and can build a starting goaltender around him. Their next step is to fill out the rest of the team. They need to add more players who can strengthen the attack around Celebrini and strengthen the defense so that Askarov doesn’t have to face a barrage of shots every game. It’s at that point that they’ll become real contenders, with both the record and advanced stats to back it up.
Data courtesy of Money puck, Hockey referenceAnd StatMuse. The statistics are accurate as of December 9.
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