The decision removes one of the better starting pitchers from the free agent market. Bieber was halfway through Tommy John rehab when he hit free agency for the first time in his career last season. He re-signed with the Guardians, the only organization he knew at the time, on a two-year contract that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber was on a minor league rehab assignment as the trade deadline approached. Cleveland, then believing they were out of contention, traded him to Toronto for a pitching prospect Khal Stefan.
The Blue Jays made one of the most fascinating risk-reward decisions of the deadline. They gave up a legitimate candidate for a potential rental starter who hadn’t pitched in an MLB game in over 14 months. It worked out well, as Bieber returned as the #3 caliber starter he had been with the Guards in 2023. He made seven regular-season starts and posted a 3.57 earned run average over 40 1/3 innings. Bieber fanned an above-average 23.3% of opponents, against an excellent walk rate of 4.4%. He looked fully healthy and averaged 92.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball – his best velocity since 2021.
Bieber added another 18 2/3 frames over five postseason appearances. He pitched quite well overall, allowing nine runs (eight earned) with 18 punchouts against six free passes. Bieber did surrender three playoff home runs, including the decisive World Series Will Smith longball in overtime of Game 7. It ended in disappointment, but Bieber was generally effective for the Jays both in the regular season and in October.
That seemed to position him well for a return trip without agents this winter. Bieber turns 31 in May. While he’s unlikely to recapture the top form that earned him the AL Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 season, he certainly would have attracted plenty of interest as a mid-rotation starter that’s still young for a free agent. A nine-figure deal did not seem entirely out of the question. At the very least, he seemed poised for a higher average annual value based on a two- or three-year warranty that would allow him to opt out after the first season.
The $12 million difference between the option price and the buyout is well below market value for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber, even if he was committed to a one-year deal. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that is less than Walker Buhler, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton And Tomoyuki Sugano signed contracts with free agents last winter. It’s a few million dollars above the guarantees signed by Michael Soroka ($9MM) and Michael Lorenzen ($7MM).
Bieber will nevertheless record that and try to help the Jays over the top in 2026 after their heartbreaking near miss. Only his camp knows the specific reasoning behind that decision. Speculatively, it’s possible he’s hoping for a longer-term deal with the Jays. He clearly feels at ease with the city and the organization. However, there are no reports indicating that the parties have begun expansion talks, let alone that significant progress has been made. That’s not to say it’s impossible that such conversations took place behind the scenes, but the option decision is a huge development for the team.
Toronto was faced with Bieber’s departure as a free agent, Max Scherzer And Chris Bassitt in the rotation. They are balancing their starting pitching needs against their desire to retain Bo Bichettewho could get a contract worth more than $200 million, making him the second-highest paid player in the free agent class. Bieber voluntarily committed to a below-market salary to rejoin Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage And Jose Berrios is a big boost. They will still look to add at least one additional starter, but this could give the Jays more flexibility to make a competitive offer to Bichette and/or upgrade the late innings.
Image courtesy of John Sokolowski, Imagn Images.
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