How Doing do you determine the MVP? Is it just the best player? The best player on the best team? The best individual advanced statistics portfolio?
There never has been one method and there never will be. Nikola Jokic’s continued greatness has made the debate even more difficult, as his consistency turns every year into a test of whether someone else has done enough to unseat him.
Until now.
This season is not about Jokic’s status. It’s about Shai’s undeniable greatness.
Shai is the best player in the world.
Shai is the best player on the best team. OKC has a historic NRTG of +16.4. The 7.1 efficiency gap between the #1 Thunder and the #3 Nuggets is as large as the gap between the #3 Nuggets and the #11 Heat.
He has also simply been the best player, period.
OKC is once again one of the best defensive teams in history. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better defensive player than Shai, but the Bucks’ 115.5 DRTG on play can’t approach the Thunder’s DRTG with Shai on the court (104.0). That’s just a hair above their truly historic overall rating (103.4). There’s no point in contrasting Shai’s defensive profile with the other MVP candidates this season. It’s more relevant to compare him to Michael Jordan and the ’98 Bulls. Like Mike, Shai is a scoring machine who plays a meaningful role for a defensive juggernaut, generating turnovers and guarding tough assignments on a nightly basis.
You can blink and argue that Jokic is having a better offensive season than Shai, but even that is questionable. Shai doesn’t have Jokic running the gamut on offense, but he has eclipsed the three-time MVP in most conventional measures of MVP performance for an offensive star: more points, more wins, better margin of victory, more and better clutch performances, and a similar output for his team’s offense while he’s on the court.
Jokic has more assists and rebounds than Gilgeous-Alexander. And he has a better shooting percentage because he takes fewer two-pointers as a centerpiece. Color me unimpressed. SGA leads the way in volume and efficiency, both from the three-point arc and the free throw line. SGA takes on more playmaking responsibilities than Jokic, outpacing center usage (32.1% for Shai, 28.6% for Jokic). Jokic shoots less, giving himself up to teammates who take more chances than Shai’s teammates.
The advanced offensive statistical argument for Jokic over Shai is supported by Jokic’s shooting not take and his teammates to make.
The Thunder’s 124.5 ORTG with SGA and Denver’s 127.8 ORTG if the Joker does would both lead the league. The Nuggets lead the league overall, while Oklahoma City has only the fifth best ORTG this season. But the Thunder would be higher if Shai didn’t rest about a third of OKC’s fourth-quarter minutes after blowing teams out early enough: the Thunder’s ORTG, when Shai closes out games, is a ridiculous 133.0. Their unlinked ORTG in the fourth quarter, when Shai sits, is around 111.2 at the time of writing. That’s just under New Orleans’ 26th number for the season, and enough drag to put a pointless distance between the two on paper.
Finally, you can spare me the attraction to Jokic’s legendary shooting season, which moves the MVP needle in his direction. Shai’s season will be just as legendary.
Shai has the most value in sports.
“What is the name of the prize?”
A while back, Tim Bontemps asked that question while declaring Giannis the MVP of the young season. Because the Bucks plummet on both ends of the court when Giannis sits, Bontemps claimed, he has to play the most valuable.
Bontemps thought Giannis was the obvious MVP because his team is much better when he plays and much worse when he doesn’t.
When taken to its logical end, Bontemps’ argument fails. If we were to follow this, the MVP candidate would have to go to the best player on the roster worst team. By default, any player on a below-average team is more likely to produce sharp on/off splits. Where there is synergy between the stars and their teams’ dominance, there is less space between their baseline and the offensive ceiling.
But if we’re going to get pedantic about what “most valuable” means when a player isn’t on the field, let’s follow that path even further. If we want to emphasize the weight of the word “value” instead of “best”, then let’s talk Real value. Like in dollars, honey.
Jokic and Giannis have the third and fifth most expensive contracts in the sport. Shai, on the other hand, has the 35th highest salary in the NBA.
Shai has better teammates not by accident, but because his age limits his earning potential under the CBA. The Thunder are able to build such a deep championship roster precisely because their best player occupies one of the most advantageous salary spots in the sport. Being the best player on a championship roster for the cap hit that arrives is the peak value off the field.
That Shai has patiently embraced the Thunder’s rebuild — trusting the front office and coaching staff to add complementary talent around him for the long term as he developed into a megastar — is the icing on the cake.
Shai is (still) the MVP.
Shai is the rightful one, reigning MVP. Joel Embiid and others have tried to interrupt Jokic’s reign; Shai may have put an end to it. Shai and the Thunder were better than Jokic and the Nuggets in the regular season, but then outperformed them in the playoffs. SGA validated its first MVP by leading OKC to the title and then came back even better.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was and still is the best player in the world.
By almost any lens, Shai is producing the most valuable season in the league. To build SGA’s MVP case, you can choose from any of the criteria you want: individual and team scoring stats, individual and team efficiency stats, historical size as a scorer, historical size as a defender, on-field value, off-the-field value, you name it.
This is not a new debate. It’s the continuation of one he already won. And he’s already surpassing his championship MVP season for the history books.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Most Valuable Player until further notice.
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