Seasonal of September Beaks Bears: Nifty Down 6 of the last 10 years; Where should you invest now?

Seasonal September, with the handy closure, leans lower in 6 of the last 10 years, largely driven by foreign capital outlets when FIIs became just as many times.

The 50-stock index settled lower in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The sharpest decrease of 6.4% was registered in 2018, followed by a decrease of 3.7% in 2022. Nifty in 2016 fell nearly 2%, while 2015 saw a modest 0.3% decrease. In 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2024, Nifty closed positively, rose by 4%, 2.8%, 2%and 2.3%respectively.

Be/give the date

Fii’s achieved profits and were net sellers at six times in September, while on four other occasions they drift funds. They were net sellers in 2015 (-rs 6.475.15 crore), 2017 (-rs 11.392.27 crore), 2018 (-rs 10.824.7 crore), 2020 (-rs 7.782.53 crore), 2022 (-rs 7.623.66 crore). In the meantime, Fii’s Netto buyers were in 2016 (RS 10.443.25 Crore), 2019 (RS 7,547.89 Crore), 2021 (RS 13.153.69 Crore) and 2024 (RS 57.723.64 Crore).
Notwithstanding the FII sentiment, its domestic institutional investors (DIIS) have been net buyers every year in September. The highest purchase was registered in 2024, when Diis bought shares worth RS 31,860 Crore. The following strongest purchase months were in 2017 and 2014, with Diis getting shares worth RS 21,026 Crore and RS 14.220 Crore respectively. In 2018 and 2019, Diis bought shares with a value of almost RS 12,500 crore each (2019: RS 12,490.81 crore).

The September series started on Friday, August 29, with the handy closure of 0.3% lower at 24,426.85. The Nifty Index Fell 1.7% Duration August Amid Heighted Fii Selling, AS RS 34.993 CRORE WORTH OF INDIAN EQUITIES WERE WERE OFFADED. Stock futures. With an 18-year-old vision, SBI Securities noted that the performance of Nifty was mixed in September. On 10 occasions, the index closed positively with an average profit of 6.78%, while on 8 occasions it ended negatively with an average loss of 2.65%. The average return for Nifty in September was 2.6%. Moreover, September consistently demonstrated an average volatility of 9% for the Nifty index, according to the report.

Based on Rollover -data from Augustus, potential outperforming sectors can include cars, sustainable consumers and FMCG. Potential under -performance sectors are probably private banks, financial services, defense, oil and gas, media, PSE, CPSE, capital markets and realty, according to the report.

Technical display

The index is currently being traded under the EMA levels of 20, 50 and 100 days, and the daily RSI is below the average of 9 days, which is a slip below 40 Mark, noted SBI Securities. “Continue, the 200-day EMA zone of 24,300-24,250 will act as an important support for the index. Any sustainable movement below 24,250 can lead to further correction to the 24,000 level,” warned the brokerage.

(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)