Sam Honzek comparable based on production after the season of D+2

There may be no Calgary Flames prospect more division than Sam Honzek. Some have arranged it in their top perspectives in the Flames system, while some have him far down. The 16th overall selection of 2023 has had a tumultuous time since the preparation. Multiple nagging injuries and some poor production have so far been the story for Honzek.

There is no doubt that the talent and the basic principles are there, but that has not led to competent production so far. The question now is, how likely is Honzek to reverse things and to realize his potential? To get a better idea of what Honzek is coming, I made a journey through the memory strip to find previous examples similar to Honzek and how their career went.

Honzek’s production so far

First, let’s look at the production of Honzek since we have been prepared.

Let’s just be blunt here. Honzek’s D+1 season was a nightmare across the board. After an excellent concept year that saw him a 1.3 point per game percentage in the WHL as an 18-year-old, the production of Honzek came down in his D+1. For a player selected in the upper half of the first round, especially as one of the older players in the design, it is expected that they should dominate the junior ranks in their D+1. Instead, Honzek clashed and finished in scoring in his team under one point and sixth in his team. Injuries or not, his D+1 was a large red flag.

Last season Honzek made the leap to the AHL after getting a few games in the NHL, and the production was again overwhelming. His 21 points in 52 AHL games as a 20-year-old is far from terrible, but it is not exactly impressive either. Under AHL-Rookies, Honzek finished 59th in scoring, behind several younger players and late Round Trek selections. Again, injuries played a role, just like his role in the Line -up of the Calgary Wranglers, but the Bottom Line is that his production was lower than what you would expect from a top 16 selection.

The demolition of the historic numbers of D+1 forward in the CHL

The poor D+1 production of Honzek in Junior made me think, how many comparable players over the years have seen comparable autumn in junior, and how often have they turned things around and become impact players in the NHL? Let’s dive into it.

For this exercise I went all the way back to the design of 2000 to find every attacker that was set up from the CHL between 2000 and 2024 in the reach of 10 to 16. From here I look at how many of this attacker came back to Junior, and finally how many saws a decrease in production. Here is a look at the findings.

• A total of 44 forwards were selected from the CHL in the reach of 10-16 between 2000 and 2024.

• Of these 44 forwards, 40 of them returned to the CHL for their D+1 season. Three went directly to the NHL/AHL (Cole Perfetti, Zach Benson and Dustin Brown). One went to Europe (Jakub Klepis)

How often do D+1 Forward see a fall in production in the CHL?

Here it is getting interesting. Of the 40 attackers selected from the CHL in the reach of 10-16 who returned to Junior, I looked at each to see what their production looked like in their D+1 season.

In total, 37 of the attackers saw an increase in their CHL production in their D+1 season. Seven of them – including Honzek – saw a decrease in their CHL production in their D+1 season. There are countless reasons why a player could see a decrease in production in the CHL – Injuries, poor selection, etc. – But the Bottom Line is only seven of the 40 eligible players saw a decrease. In other words, it is quite rare.

Below are the seven players who saw a decrease in production, ranked by PPG in their D+1.

Some obvious findings stand out immediately. Seth Jarvis and Jake Debruisk are the clear bijters here. It is the only two names that have had a career in the NHL as top-six players. Jarvis actually saw everyone’s biggest D+1 -drop, but it turned out to be fine. No reason to worry about Honzek in that case, right? Not so fast.

Firstly, the Jarvis D+1 season was held in the short Covid year in the WHL, where his team only played 24 games. Secondly, his D+0 was fantastic with 98 points in 58 games on a charged Portland Winterhawks selection that went 45–11–7. During his D+1 season, the Winterhawks only went 13–8–3. Then there is the fact that Jarvis was insufficient D+1 season by placing 40 points in 68 games in the NHL in his D+2. In other words, he immediately showed that his D+1 production was a babbling.

Debruisk now saw a minimum decrease of 1.13 points per game to 1.06. He also brought his D+1 season divided between two different WHL teams and started the year on a rapidly current Broncos team that went 24-28-10 that year. Just like Jarvis, he turned around and had a solid D+2 season by posting 49 points in the AHL. The following year he placed 43 points in the NHL.

After Jarvis, Honzek saw the biggest decrease in production in his D+1 season. Moreover, his 0.94 points per match is in 5th place among the seven players who have experienced drop-offs, only for Zack Kassian and Radek Faksa. Those three are also the only players who have been deposited so far that they fell at a point per pin speed. Not exactly a great group to be part of.

Outside of Jarvis and Debbrussk, none of the other players are more than in -depth in the NHL. What we can get from this is that when a player saw a drop in his D+1 production, it is their D+2 bumps back that was a clear indicator if their struggles were an outbreak or reason for concern.

Jarvis and Debbrussk immediately bounced back in the pros, Honzek not so much. The credit where it should be, such as Steve Bernier, Logan Brown, Zack Kassian and Radek Faksa all returned to the CHL, while Honzek Ahl played hockey in his D+2 season. The issue is that Honzek’s AHL production was simply not very good and did nothing to erase the memory of his D+1 wrestings.

How often do D+1 Forward produce under one point per game in the CHL?

So what about viewing every attacker prepared from the CHL in the reach of 10-16, regardless of whether they experienced a drop -off production in their D+1? Instead, I looked at every attacker who placed a point per game percentage under 1.0 in their D+1 season in the CHL. In total, six of the 40 players who returned to the CHL succeeded in producing at a point per game percentage in their D+1. Here is the list, arranged by D+1 ppg.

The good news? Honzek is ahead of this group as the best player to a certain extent per game percentage. The bad news? It is not exactly a names of a murderers. In fact, almost every name on this list has never become more than a third line player at its best.

The bottom line is that Forwards returning to the CHL in their D+1 season and see their production ending up under a PPG, almost never become an impact NHL players. The best case was a Bottom-Six attacker for a handful of seasons, such as Brandon Sutter, Kassian and Faksa. The worst case is a total failure such as Colton Gillies or Samuel Morin, who hardly sniff a regular NHL action.

The best result was clearly Sutter, who became a very solid third line center in the NHL for a few seasons. His case, however, looks a lot like Jarvis and Debrussk above. The following season, in his D+2, he played 54 NHL matches and placed a 0.54 ppg rate in the AHL. Against his D+3 season he was a full-time NHler who placed 40 points for the Carolina Hurricanes. For comparison, Honzek played five NHL matches and placed a 0.4 ppg rate in the AHL in its D+2. His D+3 is currently TBD, but the chance that he will take a Sutter-like jump to the NHL seems slim.

The chances are not to his advantage

Look, Honzek is only 20 years old and has already spent a full season in the AHL. Just on the basis of that fact, it is much too early to count it out. However, the fact remains that his production in its D+1 and D+2 has been achieved well with expectations. History has shown that players have been set up in the same places that see a similar dip in production, almost never become an impact NHL players. If they do that, they do it by immediately bouncing back in their D+2. Something Honzek didn’t.

He may not have to save his career yet, but the clock is ticking Honzek to prove that the flames have made a good choice to choose it as the 16th best player in the 2023 design.

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