When the Nats selected Griff McGarry in the Rule 5 Draft, I was cautiously optimistic. He possesses some of the best stuff in the minor leagues, but has struggled throwing strikes over the years. Last year we saw a similar story with Evan Reifert. He had a nasty slider, but was nowhere near the zone in Spring Training.
That meant the Nats brought Reifert back to the Rays before he ever played a regular season game. There’s a chance the same thing could happen to McGarry. However, McGarry had a dominant first outing of Spring Training, charging into the zone and striking out two batters in a 1-2-3 inning.
In a wide open bullpen, McGarry probably has the best pure stuff. However, he walked nearly 14% of hitters in AA last year as starters. The crazy thing is that this was a big improvement from 2024, when he walked a whopping 24% of batters. Not having much to lose, the Nats took a shot at McGarry because his pure stuff is some of the best in the minors.
Last night we saw what happens when McGarry throws strikes. He has a mid-90s fastball, but it served as a table setter for his insane breaking balls. McGarry has a natural sense of spin and he showed that last night.
He threw two separate breaking balls, a slider and a sweeper. Being out 10 places8 of them were breaking balls. The sweeper is running a lot, averaging over 3,000 rpm last night. However, he threw his harder slider half the time and it produced excellent results. McGarry was able to land the pitch in the zone and pick up whiffs.
It’s worth noting that McGarry faced non-major leaguers, but when he’s around he can take anyone out. McGarry’s biggest nemesis is his own control rather than the hitters at the plate. Of all the pitchers who threw last night, McGarry had the third highest Stuff+ rating. Stuff+ measures the speed and movement of a pitch and gives it a grade, with 100 being average.
Again, McGarry is still a high variance arm. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds his way into a high-impact role, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to the Phillies fairly soon. It’s all about finding the zone for McGarry.
Last year, McGarry found the zone enough to be successful. In 21 starts, he posted an ERA of 3.44 despite shaky control. McGarry is similar to Clayton Beeter, with both needing only marginal control to succeed.
When McGarry turns on the heat, he is completely untouchable. There was a time last season when he struck out 23 batters in two starts. Crucially, he walked just one batter in eleven innings in those two starts. It’s so tempting to see what McGarry can do when he throws strikes.
One thing I have a little question about is how he will transition to the bullpen. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen in 2024, and he had his worst year as a pro, with his walks spiraling out of control. When he started working again last year, the results improved. Was that due to mechanical adjustments or is McGarry more comfortable starting?
If he feels more comfortable starting, that could be problematic. He profiles much better as a reliever because of his issues with throwing strikes and heavy approach to breaking the ball. The Nats will have to help him prepare as a reliever, as that is the role he will fill this year.
McGarry looked comfortable in the bullpen last night, but this will be worth keeping an eye on. He turns 27 in June, so now it’s time for Griff McGarry to let loose. As a Rule 5 pick, he will have to stay in the major leagues all season if the Nats want to keep him. Since the Nats won’t be a contender, there will be room for growing pains here.
In Boston, Paul Toboni had a lot of success finding value in the Rule-5 Draft. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock were both Rule 5 picks and are now key pieces for the Red Sox bullpen. Hopefully McGarry can do the same in DC. He certainly has the qualities to play in the top flight, as we saw last night. For McGarry, it’s all about finding the zone.
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