Rudy Gobert’s slow start was a notable story for the Minnesota Timberwolves after a 2-3 start. Gobert is averaging just 8.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. His points and rebounds are the lowest since his sophomore year. Additionally, his field goal percentage of 5.0 is the lowest since his rookie year, when he averaged less than 10 minutes per game. Gobert’s lack of attacking impact has been compounded by Anthony Edwards being sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Given Gobert’s age (33) and similarly mediocre impact in the playoffs, it’s fair to assume this decline, especially on offense, is real. While he has had some nice moments on defense and his on-off numbers are still elite, Gobert is not the Defensive Player of the Year caliber rim protector we saw two years ago. Honestly, he didn’t even look like an All-Defensive level player.
Gobert’s decline is far from the only reason the Wolves have gotten off to a slow start, but it is certainly one reason, and as the season progresses, it could come back to haunt the Wolves.
Gobert drops into the attack
We’ll discuss Gobert’s defense later (which is still largely positive), but there’s no denying that Rudy is regressing offensively. With Gobert on the field, the Wolves have an offensive rating of 107.7 (equivalent to 27th in the league), but when he sits they have an ORTG of 121.1 (fourth in the league). A swing of 23 points is significant. Even two years ago, Gobert had an offensive swing of +4.3 despite not being much of a scorer.
With Gobert on the field it sometimes seems like they are playing four against five. This may sound harsh, and I don’t want to disrespect a future Hall of Famer. Nevertheless, he is so limited as a goalscorer and is rarely involved in the attack.
Gobert is an elite screener, but he doesn’t roll to the basket well. His hands have long been an issue, and so far he’s averaging as many turnovers as assists (1.2). Notably, 3.2 of Gobert’s 8.4 rebounds are offensive, and seven of his 17 field goals have come on setbacks.
Having the increased spacing between Julius Randle and Naz Reid clearly benefits the Wolves. Another option is to play McDaniels at the four; both options have been much more effective for the Wolves.
For the most part, Gobert’s defense is still excellent
The biggest argument in favor of Gobert is that his rim protection remains impactful. According to NBA.com, with Gobert on the court, the Wolves have a defensive rating of 111.6 (equivalent to 11th in the league), but without him they have a DRTG of 133.3 (last in the league).
Gobert can still anchor a quality defense, and he is an elite deterrent. Overall, Gobert is holding opponents to 46.5 percent from the field and 38.5 percent at the rim. These numbers are truly fantastic.
However, it’s worth noting that Gobert’s 13.8 field goals defended per game is the lowest in 10 years. Moreover, mobility has never been Gobert’s strength and this year that is more noticeable. At times, teams have punished his drop coverage, with Luka Dončić shooting 71.4 percent against Gobert last Friday. He has become worse at monitoring in space and on switches. It would be foolish to say that Gobert is suddenly a bad defender, but he has regressed in this area as well.
Ultimately, Gobert’s still quality but declining defense, combined with his offense falling off a cliff, puts the Wolves in an impossible position.
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