Rookie rankings for December 30: Leading 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders

As 2025 comes to a close, Week 5 of the Rookie Rankings features a Top 10 that is largely unchanged from Week 4. But there is one small shift worth noting as the series winds down.

The first nine rankings remain the same, with Ted Noffey first. Thanks to his three Grade 1 wins in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes, he is all but assured of being named the 2025 Champion 2-Year-Old Male, and he is without a doubt our top-ranked contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

But we have made a change at the bottom of the rankings. On second thought, we replaced Japan’s Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun winner Pyromancer (#10 during week 4) with Golden Agea flashy debut winner at Fair Grounds on December 20.

At first glance, Golden Tempo seemed an unlikely candidate to win for the first time in a six-furlong maiden special weights race. His sire is two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, an elite classic distance player who has produced a bevy of Grade 1 winners racing 1 1/8 miles and beyond. In addition, Golden Tempo is the dam of Carrumba, winner of the 1 1/8 miles, Grade 3 Top Flight Invitational Handicap and a daughter of Bernardini, the 2006 champion 3-year-old male who won the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup over classic distances.

Any way you look at it, Golden Tempo is bred for racing 1 1/8 miles or further. He is also bred to peak at age 3 years and older, not as a 2 year old.

Nevertheless, Golden Tempo won his debut with a great performance. He failed to show any early speed and fell to last place by more than nine lengths. He was still in last place seven lengths ahead with only a quarter mile to run. Victory seemed impossible, but completing his final quarter mile in:23.67, Golden Tempo roared past nine rivals to win by a length and a half in 1:10.66.

Golden Tempo’s fast finish is consistent with his pedigree and suggests he will improve significantly over longer distances. He is an exciting candidate for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, hence his inclusion in the final Rookie Rankings.

This is what the final Top 10 looks like:

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1. Ted Noffey: This colt has already defeated the winners of the grades Litmus Test, Brant, Intrepido and Spice Runner. That’s an impressive record.

Owner: Wasteful farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Last race: 1^stFanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, Oct. 31 at Del Mar

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2. Paladin: After winning the Remsen Stakes, Paladin shipped from New York to Florida, where he worked a half mile on December 28.

Owners: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith and Summer Wind Equine

Trainer: Chad Brown

Last race: 1^stRemsen Stakes, December 6 at Aqueduct

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3. Further hassle: Furthermore, Ado is trying to become the first son of Gun Runner to win the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone, a son of Gun Runner, finished second by a nose in the 2024 Derby.

Owner: Wasteful farm

Trainer: Brad Cox

Last race: 1^stKentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs

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4. Satono Trip: If Satono Voyage starts in the Kentucky Derby, he will be only the second Cattleya Stakes alumnus to do so, following Lani a decade ago.

Owner: Hajime Satomi

Trainer: Hiroyasu Tanaka

Last race: 1^stCattleya Stakes, November 29 at Tokyo Racecourse

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5. Blackout Time: Although Blackout Time hasn’t posted a timed workout in more than two months, trainer Kenny McPeek confirmed in a recent post on X that the Kentucky Derby remains the target.

Owners: Brookdale Racing, Lance Gasaway and Magdalena Racing

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

Last race: 2^i.eClaiborne Breeders’ Futurity, Oct. 4 at Keeneland Race Course

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6. Litmus test: The Litmus Test is getting better with every race, so even with four starts under his belt he still has a chance for bigger performances in 2026.

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Vastbedelen Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last race: 1^stLos Alamitos Futurity, December 13 at Los Alamitos Racecourse

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7. Napoleon Solo: Napoleon Solo is known for his abundant speed, but can he stay 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby? His sire (Liam’s Map), dam (Atomic Blonde) and dam’s sire (Scat Daddy) all had their biggest wins at 1 1/8 miles or less.

Owner: Golden Square

Trainer: Chad Summers

Last race: 1^stChampagne Stakes, October 4 at Belmont at the Big A

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8. Gunner: Cannoneer recently shipped from Kentucky to Florida, where he worked a half-mile in 50 seconds on Dec. 24 at the Payson Park Training Center.

Owners: St. Elias Stables and Stone Street Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Last race: 1^stgirl special weight, Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs

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9. Iron Honor: Iron Honor is one of several talented Kentucky Derby prospects trained by Chad Brown, who has saddled a trio of top-three finishers in the battle for the roses.

Owners: St. Elias Stable, William Lawrence and Cathi Glassman

Trainer: Chad Brown

Last race: 1^stfirst special weight, December 13 at Aqueduct

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10. Golden Time: The sky is the limit for Golden Tempo as he matures and attempts longer distances.

Owners: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Cherie DeVaux

Last race: 1^stspecial weight girl, Dec. 20 at Fair Grounds