Happy February everyone! Last week we talked about first base and some general draft trends and levels as we took a broader look at the position. Today we return to our deep-league roots to look further down the first base rankings in search of some gems – or at least breakout plans – once we’re deep into a draft or run out of money in an auction. None of these are names we want to rely on as our primary first basemen, even in the deepest leagues, but that doesn’t mean they might not have some value as backups, bench depth or just a contingency plan in a draft that’s completely going off the rails.
Rather than following purely ADP, which as we discussed last week can be extremely misleading the deeper you go in the rankings, I’m going to use the “minimum choice” number as my threshold for this list. Using the final month of overall NFBC ADP, we look at two trios of players: one group of players who were each not picked higher than #250 overall in any draft, and a second who did not go higher than #350 overall. I will also list the player’s overall ADP as well as his max pick number. So let’s take a look at the proverbial bottom of the first base barrel and see if we think any of these names can rise above their low preseason rankings and ultimately provide some value in the deep league.
Minimum choice 250+
Jos Bell (min/max 260/467, ADP 388). Let’s not think that Bell will ever return to the fantasy baseball contributor he once was. But as far as landing spots go, Minnesota doesn’t seem like a bad place in terms of odds. In regular at-bats, the power should be there when you need a late punch from a corner spot. I think this price is more than fair and perhaps even a potential value for someone whose batting average over the last three years is probably better than you thought it was (.245).
Spencer Horwitz (min/max 277/456, ADP 415). Horwitz is a guy I targeted coming late in the draft season, but somehow still hasn’t been selected. In my first draft it went much sooner than I expected. He fell further in my second, but at that point in the draft, given the way my roster was constructed, I had higher priorities than infield depth. The Pirates made some relatively impactful (for them) additions this offseason, so there are a lot of moving parts, and right now I’m having trouble predicting playing time in Pittsburgh. That said, this late in the draft, I think there is just enough upside with Horwitz to make him a fairly intriguing option.
Nathaniel Lowe (min/max 283/622, ADP 583). One of the reasons I’m including Nate Lowe is because he’s a great example of how one or two off-base picks can really skew someone’s ADP once you get past a certain point in the draft. While Lowe’s minimum pick number is very close to Bell’s, as you can see there is a huge discrepancy in their overall ADP. Lowe is still a free agent, which in itself can stifle ADP until news of a signing emerges one way or another. I actually drafted him very late in one of my draft and hold leagues, but I’m starting to wonder if the baseball world as a whole has just about given up on him, and I’m half expecting a report that he’s playing overseas one of these days. While he never came close to being a fantasy stud, he was at least a batting average stabilizer and overall stats accumulator for a while, but for now I think I’m out at all costs until and unless we hear about a reasonably intriguing signing.
Minimum choice 350+
Pavin Smith (min/max 374/585, ADP 559). I think the D-Backs signing Santana (who hasn’t been picked higher than No. 591 yet; we’ll see if that changes) surprised many, at least those who were expecting a late-career return to the desert for Paul Goldschmidt. It’s hard to imagine Santana having much left in the tank at this point, and for me right now, Arizona’s 2026 lineup is one of the hardest to project. Will the switch-hitting Santana actually be the everyday or at least some sort of regular first baseman, with Smith being the strong side of a DH platoon? Will Adrian Del Castillo ultimately fit into the mix, and how hurt is Tyler Locklear? Will Blaze Alexander actually play outfield? (Dude literally got traded while I was turning this post in… so at least one question answered!) Will Alek Thomas still be in the team next month? And has Arenado’s signing pushed Jordan Lawlar completely out of the picture for now? Are we 100% convinced that Ketel Marte is really not going anywhere? It all seems very murky, and those aren’t always the most fun situations to navigate during draft season, especially in early February. But if you can get the right guy for the right price, some value can be extracted from this mess. He may not be a source of upside, but I think there’s a non-zero chance that Smith helps get the right roster in the right league.
Paul Goudschmidt (min/max 376/592, ADP 546). It’s probably been a few years since I mentioned Goldy two blurbs in a row, and I have to say I’m struggling to figure out if he’ll be of any value at all this year, or if he’s officially reached roster clogger status even in deeper leagues. I think the people who were surprised he didn’t end up back in Arizona now expect him to return to the Big Apple, and if that happens, I’d expect it to noticeably, if not overwhelmingly, boost his draft stock. While last year’s .274 average was certainly helpful, it’s just not comforting to see that Goldschmidt only hit 10 home runs in a much higher number of at-bats than I realized (489). I suppose this isn’t a crazy grab if you can get him well after pick 500, but I wouldn’t go near him even if he gets close to his minimum pick number.
Jake Bauer (min/max 394/595, ADP 601). Welcome to the closest thing we have to a legitimate power/speed threat on this list. Yes, the bar is low. Bauers hit 7 home runs and had 8 steals in 183 at-bats last year, and I should probably mention that he did that while hitting just .235, so it wasn’t like he was helping in the average category either. The fact that he also qualifies in the outfield is likely why he even ranks so highly in drafts, as much of the NFBC data is driven by draft and hold leagues where multi-position eligibility can contribute significantly to a player’s value. There’s no reason to think his playing time will increase this year, but I would like to point out that the CBS projections for Bauer include not only 308 plate appearances, but also 14 home runs and 12 steals. That seems extremely optimistic to me, but if it were to happen, that would be a pretty decent return for someone whose ADP is right at 600.
Well, if anything, this list has become a reminder that I don’t want to get caught in any league, deep or otherwise, without a solid option at first base, because I realize how ugly the battle to fill the position becomes later in a draft. There are a few other free agents in this bracket, like Rhys Hoskins and Ty France, that I didn’t even include as flyers because I’m not going to buy that deep into them until we know more. Thanks for reading and happy reading to everyone!
#Rolling #deep #deeper #dive #beginning