Revelio reports job losses in October as the shutdown increases economic tension

By 2025, labor market conditions became a primary concern for the U.S. economy. Weakening labor market data, especially the slowdown in nonfarm payrolls, was the main reason the Fed shifted to a more dovish stance in the second quarter.

This led to labor market reports becoming an unofficial gauge of Fed policy. After two consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October, the Federal Open Market Committee already signaled that interest rates would fall again in December.

However, the government shutdown that began in October added a new layer of uncertainty for investors trying to anticipate the Fed’s next move. With little economic data coming out because federal agencies can’t publish economic reports, the Federal Reserve is left with the usual data input, which is essential for decision-making.

While not ideal, private sector reports provide a crucial alternative to official labor statistics. Today, Revelio Labs reported a loss of 9,100 jobs in October, reinforcing the idea that the US labor market is still weak.

“Our October RPLS figures show that the labor market continues to cool as expected,” said Chief Economist Lisa Simon said. “The slightly negative job growth is driven by job losses in the public sector. Education and healthcare is the only sector that meaningfully added jobs last month.”

While the data contrasts somewhat with a recent ADP report showing a modest increase in job creation, the difference reflects the different metrics each organization tracks, with ADP excluding government employees.

We are already experiencing the longest government shutdown in US history, and the effects of this prolonged gridlock on the economy are becoming increasingly visible. Now in uncharted territory, analysts say Guy Berger believe the shutdown could be approaching irreversible territory for the labor market as hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed and contractors who rely on government funding face back-to-back layoffs.

Initially, the government shutdown had little effect on cryptocurrencies. However, after weeks of economic uncertainty hovering over financial markets, selling pressure finally took over digital assets in October.

Bitcoin is down more than 10% since the shutdown began. Of course, other factors, such as US-China trade, amplified the market’s decline last month. But over the past two weeks, uncertainty about future US economic policy has been the biggest contributor to the downturn.

Prediction betting and a surprisingly accurate trading platform, Polymarket, don’t indicate the shutdown will end anytime soon.

According to investors’ pricing on Washington’s next move, they estimate a 31% chance that the shutdown will end on November 14, while 49% of traders are betting it will last beyond November 16.

This ongoing uncertainty is likely to continue to impact investors’ risk appetite in the coming weeks. And while some market participants remain hopeful that a resolution can quickly restore confidence, most analysts warn that the longer the shutdown continues, the greater its impact will be.