Reinier de Ridder enters Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event on October 18 as the consensus favorite, but Brendan Allen’s credentials and skills leave room for value on the underdog line.
Dutch-born De Ridder, undefeated in the UFC and riding a five-fight winning streak from his one championship days, is expected to lean on his wrestling to neutralize Allen’s varied attack. Allen, meanwhile, has subtle advantages in endurance and recentness octagon activity. Here’s a detailed look at the betting landscape, fighter matchups and key factors shaping the lines for this middleweight showdown at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.
In major sportsbooks, the Knight’s Moneyline has fluctuated between -155 and -185, while Allen’s line ranges from +135 to +143. For those who want to maximize their betting options, using a Bet365 bonus code can add extra value when playing the odds. The consensus favorite probability is close to 62%, while Allen’s odds imply about a 42% chance of pulling off the upset. Line movement to the Knight reflects bettors’ confidence in his struggling and undefeated UFC mark, although some value remains on Allen as the underdog.
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen Odds
At 34 years old, De Ridder stands 6’4″ with a reach of 78″. A Southpaw grappler with world-class submission skills, he has finished four of his last five opponents and earned a split-decision over Robert Whittaker in July. De Ridder excels in takedown volume and control, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his striking accuracy limits damage absorbed.
Allen, 29 years old, measures 6’2″ with a reach of 75″. He combines wrestling with competent boxing, securing five UFC finishes. Allen’s cardio is high considering he fights at a faster pace, making him durable in later rounds. Allen recently stopped Marvin Vettori at UFC 318 and is looking to string together another high-profile win.
Reinier de Ridder poses a clear threat of submissions against Allen. He has four submission wins in his last six outings and is priced around -120 to win by submission on several books. However, Brendan Allen’s durability and tendency to see fights through to the final bell make a de Ridder decision an attractive option at around +200. Bettors anticipating Allen avoiding early submission attempts may find value in a fight that goes the distance.
“RDR” De Ridder often imposes his struggling early and has finished opponents in opening rounds, but Allen’s resilience past Round 2 cannot be overlooked. For those looking for longer odds, finishing in Round 3 or later offers an upside: The Knight to win in Round 3+ is near +275, while Allen to finish late is priced around +800. These markets reward patience and an appreciation for the contrasting endurance profiles of the hunters.
Key props focus on De Ridder’s takedown volume and Allen’s striking output. De Ridder is averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, making the over 2.5 takedown market at -150 a strong consideration. On the striking front, Allen’s faster pace suggests he’ll land more than 50.5 key strikes, with that over/under line usually set at -110. Googlers can exploit these efficiency metrics even as the main moneyline shifts closer to the Knight.
The Submission chain and Knight’s control of the mat present the clearest path to victory. Should he secure early takedowns, Allen’s success will depend on scrambling and returning the fight to striking exchanges. Allen’s best path to an upset lies in pressuring the center, mixing strikes with timely level changes and forcing De Ridder into length exchanges where strikes can deter away attempts.
Reinier de Ridder grew up in Breda, Netherlands, starting at the age of six and earning a black belt in his teens. While pursuing a degree in physical therapy, he added Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to his training and achieved black belt status. De Ridder built his early MMA resume in European regional promotions, compiling stoppage victories before signing with one championship in 2019. In one, he captured both the middleweight and light heavyweight titles, becoming the third simultaneous two-time two-division champion.
Brendan Allen is from Louisiana, where he started Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of 13 and competed in wrestling and boxing in high school. After winning the 2015 Immafaf amateur middleweight title, he turned pro and held the Legacy Fighting Alliance Middleweight Championship twice. Allen earned his UFC contract via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019 and established himself as a finisher with submissions and TKO wins.
Since joining the UFC, De Ridder has recorded five straight Octagon victories. He opened with a third-round arm-triangle choke over Gerald Meerschaert, followed by a first-round rear-naked choke against Kevin Holland. At UFC on ESPN 67 in May 2025, Bo Nickal knee-tko’d, earning performance of the Night honors. Most recently, De Ridder knocked out former champion Robert Whittaker by split decision in July, cementing his top-five ranking.
De Ridder’s line near -170 to -185 accurately reflects his holding edge and undefeated UFC record. However, Allen’s cardio advantage, recent momentum and underdog prices around +140 offer viable betting opportunities. For gamblers seeking value, targo decision markets, alternative exotic props such as late-round finishes or Allen Moneyline before considering live betting adjustments.
In a matchup defined by grab on one side and pace on the other, the betting market reflects both fighters’ paths to victory. Expect line shifts as weigh-ins close and public support increases, but for now De Ridder remains the safe play while Allen stands as the top value underdog.
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