Reds pitcher Chase Burns is one of the best in the MLB – Redleg Nation

The Cincinnati Reds rotation is by far the best group on their team. In 2025, the Reds’ pitching staff as a whole led Major League Baseball in ERA+ (that’s ERA after adjustments to the ballparks in which everyone pitched year-round, scaled to 100 as a league average). Essentially, this means that the Reds’ pitching staff prevented runs better than any baseball team last season, when park factors are taken into account. A large portion of the pitchers from that staff return and the expectation is that the pitching will once again be a strong point. But despite several All-Stars returning, it’s Chase Burns who is expected to be the staff’s best pitcher when it comes to preventing runs.

The newest projection system to be released as we get closer to spring training is OOPSY. Yes, that’s what it’s called. I don’t make up the names. Like the other projection systems we’ve seen, Chase Burns has the lowest ERA among Cincinnati Reds pitchers. The OOPSY projections are a lot lower across the board when it comes to ERA than others, with Burns coming in with an ERA of 3.07. That’s just better than the projection for Hunter Greene and his 3.13 ERA. However, Greene is still the Reds’ most valuable pitcher thanks to his 183.0 innings pitched in the projection, compared to Burns’ 130.0.

In the Steamer projections, Burns leads the list with an ERA of 3.74 and with 132.0 innings pitched. Again, that’s Hunter Greene’s best with a 3.94 ERA in 183.2 innings. According to BAT projections, Burns has an ERA of 3.88 in 115.2 innings, while Greene is next at 3.95 in his 179.0 innings. Greene also remains the most valuable pitcher in both projections, due to the difference in innings pitched.

How good does OOPSY think Chase Burns and Hunter Greene will be? Terribly. Among pitchers with an expected pitch of 100.0 innings or more, Burns has the 5th best ERA in baseball – behind only Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Shohei Ohtani. Greene is only three spots back. Two pitchers in the top eight in ERA among the 188 pitchers expected to last 100.0 or more innings.

While other projection systems also like Burns and Greene, they don’t score nearly as high in the ERA department as the OOPSY projection. The BAT projection has Burns at 32 and Greene at 38. Steamer had Burns at 31 and Greene at 55.

For Burns, it would be a big jump for him in terms of ERA. Last year as a rookie, he threw 43.1 innings and had an ERA of 4.57. That came along with five home runs allowed, 16 walks and 67 strikeouts while driving 35.6% of the batters he faced for Cincinnati in 2025. His second start was disastrous. He allowed five earned runs in 0.1 innings against Boston in a game where the Red Sox seemed to know he was tagging and hitting his pitches. In the next 11 games – some of which came as a reliever after returning from the injured list in mid-September – he posted a 3.32 ERA in 38.0 innings.

Burns, the #2 overall draft pick in 2024 out of Vanderbilt (and before that he pitched at Tennessee), didn’t spend too much time in the minor leagues and reached the major leagues in late June. Outside of that start in Boston, he looked like he belonged in almost every way.

At least on paper, he’s competing for a spot in the rotation heading into spring training. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott have been named to the National League All-Star team the past two seasons (Greene in 2024, Abbott in 2025). Brady Singer made every start last season and led the team in innings pitched. Nick Lodolo came through the year mostly healthy, appearing in 29 games and throwing 156.2 innings with a 3.33 ERA. It looks like those guys all have their spots locked up if they’re healthy.

It appears Burns will have to earn his spot in the rotation and likely defeat 2023 first-round pick Rhett Lowder. He missed the entire season due to multiple injuries, but in 2024 he made six starts with a 1.17 ERA for the Reds through the final month of the season. Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson will likely need everything to be perfect to make the rotation out of Arizona, but they will likely get at least an early look in Goodyear.