Re breaches 90/$ due to concerns over US trade deal, FPI exit and importer demand

Re breaches 90/$ due to concerns over US trade deal, FPI exit and importer demand

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The rupee started 10 paise weaker at 89.97 compared to the previous close and tested an intraday high/low of 89.9650/90.30 per dollar. | Photo credit: PTI

The rupee breached the psychologically crucial 90 against the US dollar level on Wednesday to close at a new all-time low of 90.19, against the backdrop of continued FPI outflows from equity markets, demand from importers, lack of visibility on a trade deal with the US, widening trade deficit and limited RBI intervention, among other factors.

The Indian currency closed down 32 paise against the previous close of 89.87. The rupee has fallen by about 5 percent (or about 458 paise) against the US dollar so far this calendar year.

The rupee started 10 paise weaker at 89.97 compared to the previous close and tested an intraday high/low of 89.9650/90.30 per dollar.

Anindya Banerjee, head of Commodity and Currency at Kotak Securities, attributed the Indian unit’s decline to a host of factors, including growing uncertainty surrounding the India-US trade deal, and a wave of stop-losses triggered above the 90 level, mainly from leveraged traders and options sellers defending that zone.

Further, steady demand from importers, especially from sectors like oil, metals and electronics, which continue to absorb available dollar liquidity, weighed on the rupee.

Banerjee said despite the new high, the overall price action remains orderly with the RBI selectively intervening to smooth out volatility rather than locking in a specific level.

When asked about the rupee’s rise above $90, V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser, told reporters on the sidelines of the Confederation of Indian Industry’s (CII) India Edge Summit: “I am not losing sleep over it. It will come back next year. Right now it has no impact on inflation or exports.”

Sanjiv Bajaj, Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Finserv Ltd, as Chairman of CII Corporate Governance Council, said business line that the RBI has played a sensible role in ensuring that rupee volatility is kept to a minimum, rather than setting a benchmark for the rupee-dollar. And that is the right story.

“I think the rupee should move towards its natural level in a stable manner. That will give the exporters and importers the opportunity to make the right decisions, keeping in mind that we want to be an economy on the grid that has both the ability and the need to export to the world.

“Of course a weaker rupee is better than a stronger rupee. Sometimes you need a weaker currency for an interim period to become strong and big enough as a country and then the currency becomes strong. We have to go through that cycle,” Bajaj said.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that any limit crossed by the rupee, which remains valid for two to three days, becomes the new benchmark.

“The market is talking about 91, although we think there should be a correction back to the 88-89 level after the (bi-monthly RBI monetary) policy. But it is always guesswork – as it has been since we crossed the ₹88 mark,” he said.

Published on December 3, 2025

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