Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that talks with the Rays have created a framework that would guide both Ryan Pepiot And Shane Baz to the desert. Piecoro writes that nothing seems close on that front and that the Rays aren’t necessarily a frontrunner. He adds that the Diamondbacks have had discussions with another team interested in Marte that would be built around a bigger-name starting pitcher.
Whether or not there is talk about Tampa Bay’s progress, the mention of multiple drivable starters underlines the high asking price the Diamondbacks have set. Pepiot landed in Tampa Bay as the center of the Tyler Glasnow returned two offseasons ago. He is the team leader with 297 2/3 innings pitched since the start of 2024.
The former third-round pick has a 3.75 earned run average while striking out just over a quarter of opponents. He is a decent offensive pitcher who sits around 95 MPH with his heater and has a plus changeup. Pepiot’s slider is a distant third offering, and the change has turned him into a reverse splits pitcher. He has held left-handed hitters to a .192/.287/.354 batting line with a strikeout rate of nearly 28% over the past two seasons. Righties have hit .243/.303/.420 while striking out at a 23% clip.
Pepiot is unlikely to develop into an ace, but he is an established mid-rotation starter who turned 28 in August. He has just over three years of service, so he is under arbitration control until 2028. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at a salary of $3.7 million. Teams value an affordable #3 starter. The Rays are unlikely to be shopping Pepiot, but it’s a testament to Marte’s offensive impact that the judge would come up in those conversations.
Baz, 26, has also come up in trade talks with the Astros. The 6’3″ righty is a former top prospect who has yet to reach his upper mid-rotation ceiling. That’s partly due to some injuries early in his career, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2023 season. He posted a 3.06 ERA over 14 starts when he returned in ’24. That earned him a spot in Kevin Cash’s rotation this year, but Baz has been up and down. He finished with a 4.87 ERA over 166 1/3 innings. That’s despite a solid strikeout rate of 24.8% and a swinging strike rate of 11.6%.
The pure advantage could be greater with Baz than with Pepiot. He sits at 97 MPH and gets above average movement on an 85 MPH knuckle curve and a 90 MPH cutter. Baz has pluses and is a pretty good strike pitcher. He was held back by a lack of consistency from start to start. He allowed one point or less ten times (including seven scoreless outings), but also had ten outings in which he gave up five or more points.
Baz also has between three and four years of service and is eligible for arbitration through 2028. He is expected to earn a salary of $3.1 million. Teams are likely split on whether they prefer the stability of Pepiot or the raw stuff of Baz, but both pitchers have significant trade value. They are two of three returning Tampa Bay pitchers (alongside Drew Rasmussen) who was at the top for 100 innings. The Rays will probably give Steven Matz a starting option, but they would certainly need to replenish the rotation if they traded two starters. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched since 2023. Joe Boyle And Ian Seymor have limited track records.
The Diamondbacks would need a monstrous return built around starting MLB pitching to move Marte. He’s hitting .283/.376/.517 with 28 home runs. Marte is the best second baseman in the league and is getting a bargain $102.5 million over the next six seasons (the last of which is a player option year).
“I think it’s a risky deal when you’re talking about trading very, very good players,” Hazen told Piecoro. “It’s something that we have to at least listen to in our work. It’s not something you necessarily really look forward to when you have the players that we have. But it’s also the reality of our team and where we are now that I have to think about some things.”
Arizona agreed to agree Michael Soroka a one-year contract this week. He will be alongside in the rotation Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez And Brandon Pfaadt. (It’s unlikely they’ll get it Corbin Burnes back from Tommy John surgery before August.) Nelson was the only one of that trio to find much success this year. The D-Backs still need to add two more starters and don’t have much room on the payroll to address that through free agency. They are also looking for help in the bullpen and could upgrade at third base or in the outfield.
While Marte is the best second baseman at least loosely available on the trade market, the Rays ironically have the second-best option. Brandon Lowe is coming off a 31-home run season in which he hit .256/.307/.477 over 553 plate appearances. Lowe is entering the final season of his contract and is expected to make $11.5 million. The Rays have reportedly taken hits from the Pirates and Reds (certainly among others) regarding his availability.
President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander addressed Lowe’s trade candidacy during the Winter Meetings (link via Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times). He called the two-time All-Star an “important, impactful player who provides strength at a position that is difficult to find.” Neander acknowledged the Rays’ history of shopping players whose control windows closed, but praised both Lowe and… Yandy Diaz as long-term contributors.
“Our history is our history. We’ve made (transactions) with established players, who are impactful contributors. As they get closer to free agency, we’ve made a lot of those decisions. But we’ve also made decisions over the last few years to move forward with these guys. We really appreciate them and are more than happy to ride out the next year and see what this team can do.”
Both clubs could go in different directions in the coming weeks. There’s also no guarantee they’ll ultimately move their best second baseman, but the trade market has yet to really pick up as most of the top free agent hitters continue to weigh their options.
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