While the Nifty managed to end on a positive note on Friday, the index ended the session forming a bearish tombstone doji candlestick on the daily chart, said Vatsal Bhuva, technical analyst at LKP Securities, while highlighting the bearish crossover and underlying weakness in the RSI.”The index is currently consolidating with bearish undertones between the 25,550–25,600 zone, where the 100-day SMA is placed and repeatedly tested, and the 25,850–25,900 resistance zone. Traders may consider trading within this defined range between 25,850 and 25,550. A sustainable bullish bias may only emerge after the index finalizes 50-day price has reclaimed. Immediate support is at 25,550-25,600, while resistance is around 25,900,” he added. He expects sentiment to remain weak in the short term, with further downside potential possible.
1. Geopolitics
The tension between the US and Iran is expected to weigh on global markets. While Iran’s decision to call off the execution of hundreds of protesters arrested during the crackdown calmed nerves, U.S. officials said military action was still on the table if Iran resumed killing demonstrators.
The US military deployed additional defensive and offensive capabilities to the region to be ready in case Trump ordered an attack, TOI reported citing US sources. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its strike group were en route to the Middle East from the South China Sea. More air defense systems, fighter jets and possibly submarines were also expected to arrive in the region.
Meanwhile, PTI reported that India is considering various options for its involvement in the development of Iran’s strategically located Chabahar port, against the backdrop of the Trump administration threatening an additional 25% tariff on countries doing business with Tehran.
2. Third quarter profits
It’s going to be an earnings high week, with more than 230 companies set to announce their quarterly results from October to December. In the Nifty pack, Eternal (Zomato), Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement and InterGlobe Aviation will post their results.
The other widely followed companies such as LTIMindtree, Punjab National Bank (PNB), Tata Capital, ITC Hotels, Adani Green Energy, IndusInd Bank and Urban Company will also report quarterly earnings.
The market will also react to the gains of Reliance Industries (RIL) and Wipro, which announced their results after market hours on Friday, and HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank on Saturday.
3. US markets
Domestic markets will take cues from the action on Wall Street. On Friday, US frontline indices finished subdued. The Dow 30 closed at 49,359.30, down 83.11 points, or 0.17%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,940.01, down 4.46 points, or 0.06%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite finished narrowly down 14.63 points, or 0.06%, at 23,515.40.
4. BE/DO action
While data on Friday shows that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold Indian equities worth Rs 4,346.13 crore, foreign outflows during the first two weeks of January stood at Rs 22,530 crore.
The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 3,935.31 crore.
It seems like the FII selling trend may continue until some positive triggers for a market rally occur, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “The AI trading that dominated the stock market trend in 2025 will continue into early 2026. A reversal of this trend could occur sometime in 2026,” he added.
He also blamed poor earnings growth, high valuations in India and ongoing tension over the US-India trade deal, among other major reasons for this tepid performance of Indian stock markets.
5. IPO watch
Plenty of action is afoot in the domestic primary market, with four companies looking to raise around Rs 2,066 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs).
In the motherboard category, logistics company Shadowfax Technologies will launch its IPO on Tuesday, January 20. The company has set the price band at Rs 118 – Rs 124. In the SME segment, IPOs of Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda and Shayona Engineering will open for public bidding.
This week will see a total of seven entries, including two well-watched mainboard debuts: Bharat Coking Coal and Amagi Media Labs. Bharat Coking Coal’s IPO has already attracted a lot of attention, with a 147 times subscription ratio and gray market premium indicating a potential stock market gain of 57%.
Read more: IPO calendar: Shadowfax is one of four IPOs worth Rs 2,066 crore to hit the market; Bharat Coking Coal leads seven lists
6. Technical triggers
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager -Technical and Derivative research at Angel One, said domestic markets will take cues from the development around trade tariffs, escalating geopolitical tensions, quarterly earnings announcements and key macroeconomic data.
From a technical perspective, the index is at a critical inflection point, where any adverse global developments could disrupt the prevailing chart structure in the short term. On the other hand, the 25,500-25,450 zone has emerged as a key support area, providing a cushion against declines, Krishan said.
“This range is expected to remain a crucial support band in case of further weakness in the coming week. On the upside, the index continues to face strong resistance in the 25,875-25,900 range, which coincides with the 50-day EMA. In the absence of a decisive and sustained break above this resistance zone, the Nifty50 is likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias,” he added.
7. Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee slid to its worst one-day decline in almost two months on Friday as increased demand for dollars from importers, in addition to unwinding positions in the non-deliverable futures market, hurt the South Asian currency. The rupee closed at 90.8650 per dollar, down 0.6% on the day, posting its worst fall since mid-November last year and inching closer to its all-time low of 91.0750 in December. The currency fell by around 0.7% week-on-week.
Periodic sales of dollars by state-owned banks, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, helped limit the currency’s fall, Reuters reported, citing traders.
“Depreciation pressure on the INR is likely here to stay, especially in the absence of an India-US trade deal,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Meanwhile, Asian currencies remained largely range-bound with the dollar index hovering around a six-week high as positive U.S. economic data caused traders to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
8. Gold, silver trends
After an extraordinary performance in 2025, both gold and silver have continued to trade so far with strong upward trends in 2026. The latest conflict between the US and Iran has given gold a new boost along with the decline of the rupee against the US dollar.
Any further escalation of the crisis is expected to further increase the appeal of gold and silver as a safe haven.
Gold prices have risen by over 5% or Rs 7,000 per 10 grams in 2026, while the white metal has risen by 22% or Rs 52,000 per kg in the first half of January.
Also read: Gold-silver ratio hits 13-year low as silver’s 170% rise trails gold. What should investors do?
9. Corporate Action
Certain stocks will be in focus this week due to corporate actions. Among them is the newly listed ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, which will have a record date for its interim dividend of Rs 14.85 per share on Wednesday, January 21.
Others like Bank of Maharashtra, NLC India, Angel One, Central Bank of India and DCM Shriram will also have record dates for interim dividends this week.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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