On Friday, the Nifty closed 103.55 points, or 0.41%, higher at 25,285.35.
Commenting on Nifty’s trend, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said Friday’s index gain helped it break out of the recent consolidation bandwagon. He expects the positive momentum to continue as long as it remains above the major moving averages. “The setup looks favorable for further upside in the short term. Any dip would provide a good opportunity to enter long trades. On the higher side, the Nifty could move towards 25,500-25,550, while on the downside, support is placed at 25,150. A decline below 25,150 could weaken the trend somewhat,” De said.
Key factors likely to influence market movement this week
1. Profit for the second quarter
More than 200 BSE-listed companies will announce their September quarter results this week. In the Nifty pack, the key names are HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, HDFC Life Insurance, Infosys, Nestle India, Wipro, JSW Steel, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and UltraTech Cement.
Among non-Nifty companies, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), IndusInd Bank and HDB Financial Services will also report results. The market will also react to DMart’s earnings announced on Saturday.2. Trump’s threat of Chinese tariffs
Asian markets including India could react to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1 after Beijing introduced “extremely aggressive” export restrictions on rare earths. “Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position… the United States of America will impose a 100% tariff on China, in addition to any tariff they are currently paying,” Trump said on Truth Social.
3. US markets
Trump’s comments weighed on US stocks, which ended sharply lower on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 878.82 points, or 1.90%, to 45,479.60; the S&P 500 fell 182.60 points, or 2.71%, to 6,552.51; while the Nasdaq Composite fell 820.20 points, or 3.5%, to 22,204.40.
Indian markets are likely to take cues from US market movements.
4. IPO watch
The primary market is expected to remain relatively quiet, with only one new motherboard IPO – Midwest – open to subscriptions. Bids for three ongoing motherboard issues and three SME offerings will be finalized.
All eyes will be on the much-awaited listings of Tata Capital and LG Electronics, scheduled for Monday and Tuesday respectively. Eight other companies will also debut on the stock exchanges this week.
5. Corporate Action
Several important corporate actions are scheduled for this week.
October 14 (Tuesday): Record date for 1:10 share split of Tata Investment Corporation, spin-off of Tata Motors, and rights issue of Utkarsh Small Finance Bank.
October 15: Record date for Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) interim dividend of Rs 11 per share.
6. FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers last week, buying shares worth Rs 3,603 crore over five sessions. On Friday alone, FIIs bought Rs 459.20 crore worth of Indian equities. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net buyers this week at Rs 8,391.2 crore, while Friday’s purchases totaled Rs 1,707.83 crore.
7. Technical factors
According to Bajaj Broking, Nifty formed a significant bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low on the weekly chart, indicating a continuation of the uptrend. The index also closed above its short-term moving averages, recovering more than 80% of its previous decline (25,448–24,588).
“The index will maintain a positive bias and rise towards 25,450, the confluence of the September 2025 high and the trendline resistance connecting the key highs of September 2024 and June 2025. A move above 25,450 will open further upside towards the June 2025 high at 25,670,” Bajaj Broking said.
The brokerage sees a dip buying opportunity this week. “We have revised the support base upward towards 25,000-24,900, coinciding with last week’s low and the 20- and 50-day EMAs,” it added.
8. Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee closed stronger at 88.6850 against the US dollar on Friday, compared to 88.7825 in the previous session, helped by RBI intervention. The currency recently hit a lifetime low of 88.80.
Analysts are divided about the prospects. While some expect further weakness, others believe the worst could be over if valuations become attractive. Currency consultancy IFA Global maintains a moderately bearish stance, forecasting an implied range of 88.40–89.30 for the next six weeks, Reuters reported.
9. Crude oil
Brent crude and U.S. crude futures fell sharply on Friday as the risk premium declined following reports of a peace deal in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.
US WTI crude settled at $58.24, down $3.27 or 5.32%, while Brent futures were around $62.73, down $3.13 or 4.80%.
Crude oil prices have a direct impact on inflation as higher fuel costs increase transportation and input prices, creating broad-based price pressures.
10. Buying precious metal
With Diwali just over a week away, festive sentiment has increased and investor interest in gold and silver is increasing as consumption and safe haven demand move in tandem.
However, shares were under some pressure. After falling 22% in August, net inflows into equity funds fell for the second month in a row to Rs 30,422 crore in September – down 9% from Rs 33,430 crore in August.
In contrast, investors poured record amounts into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), with inflows quadrupling to Rs 8,363 crore – the highest ever monthly inflows for the category.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and expert opinions are their own and do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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