PVR Inox shares could gain another 15% on Dhurandhar rumors, upcoming releases, says MOFSL analyst

Shares of PVR Inox ended Monday’s session 3% higher, buoyed by strong box office trends driven by the run of Ranveer Singh-starrer Dhurandhar in the second week.The Aditya Dhar-directed film has crossed the Rs 300 crore mark at the domestic box office while setting a new record for its second Monday collection.

According to reports, Dhurandhar earned Rs 29 crore on the second Monday (day 11), surpassing the opening day’s earnings of Rs 28 crore, an unusual performance for a weekday. With a cumulative box office collection of Rs 379.75 crore, the film is now targeting Rs 400 crore in India, and a global target of over Rs 550 crore.Against this backdrop and witnessing a robust release pipeline, domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services noted that such strong theatrical performances have led to some optimism among cinema chains like PVR Inox.

Nandish Shah, AVP – PCG Research & Advisory, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said he maintains a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock but has placed a target price of Rs 1,245, implying an upside of nearly 15% from Monday’s closing price.

Shah wrote, “The fate of PVR Inox depends on its strong pipeline releases and occupancy levels. Films like Dhurandhar, which crossed the box office collection of Rs 300cr after Chhaava and Saiyaara, led to some optimism.”

He added that a robust content offering in different languages, along with strategies for streaming events such as ‘Blockbuster Tuesday’ and re-releases, could further support performance at the screen level. “PVR management expects 2H to match, if not better, the performance of 1H,” she further noted. However, the brokerage also warned that the business remains vulnerable to fluctuations in content quality and occupancy rates.

“PVR’s business remains highly sensitive to occupancy levels, which are dependent on the quality and consistency of content, a factor largely beyond the company’s control.”

While management remains optimistic about the content pipeline for fiscal 2026, Motilal Oswal warned that even a 200-300 bp decline in occupancy could have a material impact on screen-level economic performance and EBITDA performance, posing downside risks to their current estimates.

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Despite the cautious valuation, the bullish response to Dhurandhar and the promising slate of films appear to have boosted investor sentiment in the short term, with the stock showing resilience and room for potential upside.

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