It’s Christmas week and the Christmas stove is warm, so let’s gather around the fire of teams transacting and poking the coals.
When Baltimore made the move from Grayson Rodriguez to Taylor Ward, we expected another move to solve the outfield logjam. That’s not exactly what happened next, but they did clear out some pieces and add a pitcher by sending several prospects to Tampa in exchange for Shane Baz. One thing that makes this trade unique is how differently the Orioles seem to value Rodriguez and Baz. Another is that you don’t often see three new first-round picks in one deal. If it ever happens. BY Slater de Brun and C Caden Bodine were first-rounders this year, and Baltimore along with RHP started with the 33rd selection in next year’s draft Michael Forret and OF Austin Overn. Bodine has played eleven games in Low-A and de Brun has not yet played in the pros.
Another interesting angle is that the Rays will return to Tropicana Field in 2026, and Baz struggled mightily while pitching at Steinbrenner Field in 2025, posting a 5.90 ERA at home and a 3.86 ERA on the road. He allowed 1.97 home runs per nine innings at Steinbrenner and 0.86 on the road. Theoretically they are trading him at a drop in his value as evidenced by the back of his baseball card, but I think the opposite is just as likely. Teams are pretty hard to fool with stats these days, and Baltimore seems to be looking right past the home results and paying for Baz’s road results, along with some upside. I understand that. He could be much better than his road results if he can get comfortable at his new home park and stay healthy long enough to hone his skills.
Tampa wasn’t done there yet: Trade Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and LHP Mason Montgomery to Pittsburgh on the same day and receive FROM Jacob Melton And RHP Anderson Brito of the Astros. If I had to guess, I would say Chandler Simpson‘s playtime is in a bit of trouble. The Rays signed Cedric Mullins for $7.5 million with an option for 2027 earlier this season to play center after seeing how far Simpson is from being a big league defenseman and that he may never hit enough to hold down a corner position.
People are calling this a retooling or rebuilding period for Tampa, but I disagree. They still have a rotation of Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Steven Matz and Joe Boyle. They paid Matz $15 million for two seasons. Spending money on veterans is not the behavior of a Rays team that thinks it is rebuilding. I also believe they were targeted Michael Forret because they see him as part of the rotation picture in the near future. In 18 starts across High-A and Double-A, he posted a 1.88 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 91 strikeouts in 74 innings. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him break camp in the rotation if another domino or two falls.
I suspect they are eyeing a low-end free agent to play second base, as Taylor Walls and his 66 wRC+ are currently listed there. Or perhaps they will bring some of these trade assets back into the 2026 roster. Cardinals 2B Brendan Donovan and Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte are both on the trade market under reasonable contracts. OF Slater de Brun mostly fits what Arizona is looking for in a prospect: double-plus speed and credible centerfield defense with surprising pop for a smaller guy. Of course, it will take a lot more to get Marte, but I’m just connecting the dots here. These draft picks are also easy to trade because they add some flexibility to the 40-man crunch for teams that stock up and delay prospects.
The trade makes it feel doubly official that Baltimore’s front office is putting its chips in after signing 1B Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal. Combined with Taylor Ward, they have added 74 right-handed home runs from 2025. Those home runs obviously won’t count in 2026, but the extra punch drastically changes the look of their lineup, especially after Ryan Mountcastle and Tyler O’Neill failed to provide the balance expected of them last year. Then again, chasing last year’s home runs didn’t exactly work with O’Neill. They’re still counting on Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, and it’s not like Shane Baz has always been the picture of health, so maybe they’re still looking for another arm. To me, it’s a little weird that they traded away Grayson Rodriguez for a declining corner outfielder and then traded a prospect for Baz, but it could certainly work out in their favor, or at least in favor of Mike Elias keeping his job. All they have to do is win.
Pittsburgh cent RHP Mike Burrows to Houston, where he plans to open the season in the starting rotation, with a new two-seater they want to teach him and run into RHP Jason Alexander or RHP Ryan Weiss to a swingman role. Burrows is coming off a solid rookie season, posting a 3.94 ERA with 1.24 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 96 innings, but it’s hard to dislike this trade for the Pirates. OF Jake Mangum likely moves to the top of the lineup, and 2B Brandon Lowe bolsters the middle before heading to free agency (or elsewhere at the trade deadline). LHP Mason Montgomery hasn’t had the most consistent results, but he has great stuff and could be dominant with improved command.
Combined with the Johan Oviedo for FROM Jhostynxon Garcia trade, Pittsburgh added three bats to a lineup that desperately needed some if they want to have any chance of winning while Paul Skenes is in town. It’s been an interesting offseason for them. Everyone has known for a while that they needed to move their arms for bats, and now they’ve done it twice in two offseasons as they consider their well-timed trade of Luis Ortiz to the Cleveland Gamblers for Spencer Horwitz, who was good for them (119 wRC+) when he got healthy. Oh yeah, they also sent David Bednar to New York at the deadline. Rafael Flores should contribute at some point this season and is a good park fit as a left-handed power bat. The rotation doesn’t look the scariest on paper today, but Jared Jones is on track to return to the rotation this season. He already played catch in September. And Bubba Chandler could make a splash. With Skenes, Chandler, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones and Braxton Ashcraft, they would look down on much lesser starting staffs.
Thanks for reading!
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