The Boston and St. Louis front offices have been on the phone (or texting back and forth) all offseason, culminating in two major trades so far.
Around Thanksgiving, the teams agreed to trade RHP Sonny Gray (36) along with $20 million for RHP Richard Fitts (26) and LHP Brandon Clarke (22, A+).
Gray should play like a household name, and it sounds like he’s eager to pitch in the AL East again. “It’s easy to go to a place where it’s easy to hate the Yankees,” he said at this introductory press conference, instantly endearing himself to a new fan base. He also restructured his contract to convert a guaranteed year into a mutual option that Boston can decline for a $10 million payout. With the Cardinals commanding $20 million, Gray will cost the Red Sox $11 million in 2026. If he’s good for them, Boston can bring him back next year for $30 million against a luxury tax hit of $25 million.
Cardinals RHP Richard Fitts (26) allowed 11 home runs in just 45 Major League innings in 2025, with a 5.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He throws pretty hard (95.7 mph) and makes hitters chase (32.8%), but it seems like they’re chasing because they see the ball against him very well and think they can knock down just about anything he throws. I’m not optimistic about his chances in St. Louis, especially for our purposes. He might eat enough innings to make a living in the NL Central, but the ratios are unlikely to help us.
Cardinals LHP Brandon Clarke (22, A+) is the bulk of the money in this deal. They’re paying quite a bit to get him (and Fitts) in Gray plus the $20 million, and while they didn’t want to pay Gray during a retooling cycle, they clearly believe in Clarke and his dynamite stuff at 6’4″, 220 pounds from the left side. He struck out 60 batters in just 38 innings across Low-A and High-A on a double-plus fastball-slider combo. He’s coming. alongside fifth overall pick LHP Liam Doyle, creating some potential nightmare weekends for left-handed minor league hitters Heck, for all minor league hitters. If the club can make both guys happen, watch out.
When the next holiday season arrived, Craig Breslow and Chaim Bloom reunited, trading 1B Willson Contreras for RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Yhoiker Fajardo And RHP Blake Aita. It makes sense that Bloom knows Boston’s system quite well, as he has been instrumental in building it through September 2023.
The Contreras piece of this is quite cut and dry. He should have a few excellent seasons in that setting, surrounded by hitters who make things happen. I’m not sure what to think of Triston Casas other than to say he’s probably on the trading block in real life and in your leagues. I’m not buying at the moment.
I will buy Cardinals RHP Kyle Leahy (28), who is expected to join the rotation after posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in 88 innings in 2025. At 6’5” 225 pounds and a 96th percentile extension, he will be the big winner of this deal if he can approach those results as a starter, especially in terms of his personal finances and perhaps ours as well.
Cardinals RHP Hunter Dobbins (26) had an excellent 2024 with Double-A and Triple-A, allowing just two home runs in 125.2 innings, along with a 3.08 ERA. It’s pretty hard to fake that kind of home run suppression in the upper minors, and Dobbins was able to survive the majors for 61 innings (11 starts) in 2025 thanks in large part to his skill at creating weak contact. He picked up four wins and just one loss before a torn ACL in his right knee ended his season in July and added some uncertainty to his prices this winter. It’s kind of hard to judge this trade for St. Louis because I think they have extra bats to play and not much incentive to pay $40 million for a first baseman over the next two seasons.
Cardinals RHP Blake Aita (22, A+) focuses on generating weak contact, which has worked well enough in college and the lower minors. In 115.1 innings across Low-A and High-A, he posted a 1.05 WHIP and 3.98 ERA over 23 appearances (19 starts). He retired 21.4 percent of the batters he faced for a walk rate of 6.5 percent. He has shown an aptitude for spin and currently leans heavily on a plus slider, but was lean, Sawx’s signature cutter and has some upside if he can separate the slider from the cutter and spot the chase, along with adding a bit of speed to his 6’4″, 215 pound frame. Nothing to write home about, but not a bad third piece in a deal like this.
Cardinals RHP Yhoiker Fajardo (19, A) is where the money is in this deal, and I think it’s well worth it. He has impressive command of a nasty slider and a plus-run fastball that he sees well in the zone. He actually got a better change than a 19 year old should. It amounted to a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 72 innings spread between the complex league and Low-A. The balance and power in his performance suggest many advantages beyond what is already an impressive arsenal.
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